1419 41st Ave E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1967 8,102 sqft lot Est $140k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tidevue Estates, a sought-after land-owned 55+ active community offering comfort, style, and Florida charm. This beautifully maintained home features a private backyard shaded by a stunning mature Florida live oak tree—perfect for relaxing or enjoying nature. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a brand-new roof (2026) and a 3-year-old A/C system. Inside, the open floor plan creates a bright and inviting atmosphere, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The chef’s dream kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, a functional island with storage, and ample workspace. The dining room is highlighted by a lovely bay window and built-in cabinetry, adding both

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Brand new roof
• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MATURE FLORIDA LIVE OAK TREE
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• 3 YEAR OLD A C SYSTEM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF'S DREAM KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished; Total acreage approximately 0.19 acres
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly $50, $600 annually); Association requires approval; Association amenities include pool, fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, and other recreational facilities; Association fee covers pool, escrow reserves fund, and recreational facilities; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); One level; Northeast facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as Residential property
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Eight total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $135k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.19%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1432 41st Ave E	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-8%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	79
4207 13th St E	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	79
4214 15th St E	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	79
4508 14th St E	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	74
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	70
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-8%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	68
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.14mi	2/2.0	963 (-12%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	66
4212 13th St E	0.22mi	2/2.0	960 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	64
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-8%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	61
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+9%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	60
4547 12th Street Ct E	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+8%)	6mo	$61,000	$52	58
1005 45th Ave E	0.40mi	2/2.0	960 (-12%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $40,735
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $116,171
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,266/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	3d	13	0.42mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	3d	15	0.58mi
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	23d	1	0.59mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	3d	1	0.64mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	23d	1	0.65mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	23d	1	0.66mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	1d	67	1.27mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.43mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $135,000 Active
16. 1998-10-08
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,266 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,266 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,266
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $10,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,458
• After-tax cash flow: $9,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+136.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,266 · +169.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.