32 Jefferson Rd · Cumberland Head, NY 12901

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1945 8,250 sqft lot Est $169k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute 3 season camp on Cumberlead head with 4 bedrooms and 1 bath would make a great seasonal place Place comes fully furnished and is being sold as is

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#473 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Beekmantown Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #360 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.50%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,720
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Rocky Point St	0.07mi	3/1.0	950 (+4%)	10mo	$128,000	$135	82
43 Seneca Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	911 (-0%)	4mo	$227,000	$249	71
15 Mohican Lane Ln	0.62mi	3/1.0	900 (-1%)	4mo	$78,000	$87	66
19 Seneca Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (+11%)	1mo	$226,805	$225	49
8 Mohawk Road Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+12%)	8mo	$180,000	$176	41
7 Chenango Road Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+12%)	12mo	$189,995	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $20,222
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $64,546
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12901

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,262/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $628	-5% $600	+0% $572	+5% $543	+10% $515
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $510	+0% $572	+5% $634	+10% $696
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $597	base $572	+0.5pp $546	+1.0pp $519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-21
   status Active
3. 2025-07-15
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-26
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$214/yr (+$18/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,262
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,341
• After-tax cash flow: $5,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beekmantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604290
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $53,577
• Composite: 43.91/100
• National rank: #2914
• State rank: #360 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cumberland Head

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #8361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland Head, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,012

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,791 people
• By 2030: 76,848 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 71,579 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 66,471 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 57,361 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 47,232 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.9% · R 51.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+5.2 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+25.6 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.55%
• Current HPI: 252.8692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-07-15 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $100,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,262 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.