2421 Regency Dr · Biloxi, MS 39532

$255,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $292k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ancient Oaks subdivision, no HOA fees, beautiful oak in back yard, magnolia out front. Large property, excellent neighborhood for a growing family.

Key facts

• Oak in back yard
• Magnolia out front
• No hoa fees

Tags

• ANCIENT OAKS SUBDIVISION
• NO HOA FEES
• OAK IN BACK YARD
• MAGNOLIA OUT FRONT
• EXCELLENT NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Biloxi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in MS, #2,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, employment D-.
• Biloxi Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #7 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Bay Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #11 of 375 statewide, top 3%, 754 students, 100% FRL); Biloxi Junior High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade C, #27 of 179 statewide, top 16%, 881 students, 100% FRL); Biloxi High School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade C+, #7 of 197 statewide, top 3%, 1,728 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,691 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 N Shore Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	8mo	$275,000	$133	77
2331 Rue Maison	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,127 (-1%)	4mo	$372,900	$175	66
2439 W Shore Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,100 (-2%)	18mo	$359,900	$171	65
821 Auburn Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,190 (+2%)	2mo	$349,900	$160	62
901 N Shore Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,051 (-4%)	22mo	$266,500	$130	62
2430 W Shore Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,287 (+6%)	21mo	$400,000	$175	61
2451 W Shore Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,964 (-8%)	14mo	$216,000	$110	56
869 Auburn Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,147 (0%)	21mo	$225,000	$105	43
2332 Edwards Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,046 (-5%)	18mo	$239,500	$117	42
930 Wildwood Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,350 (+10%)	4mo	$320,000	$136	39
886 On The Grn	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,880 (-12%)	10mo	$295,000	$157	37
790 Cambridge Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,971 (-8%)	23mo	$240,000	$122	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,843
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-48,355
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $817/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $240,135

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-12	+0% $-84	+5% $-156	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-156	+0% $-84	+5% $-13	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-19	base $-84	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2411 Sunkist Country Club Rd Biloxi, MS	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	45d	1	0.17mi
2171 Popps Ferry Rd Biloxi, MS	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,600	$0.98	45d	1	0.91mi
10099 Bald Eagle Dr Biloxi, MS	4.0	2.0	1930	$1,725	$0.89	15d	1	1.33mi
860 Leeward Dr Biloxi, MS	4.0	2.0	1885	$2,650	$1.41	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $255,000 Active
18. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus
19. 2013-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $817 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,015 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,197/yr (+$100/mo · 146.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$817
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Biloxi Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2800630
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,608
• Composite: 45.26/100
• National rank: #2657
• State rank: #7 of 130 in MS

Livability — Biloxi

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Biloxi, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 63,281
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 36,662
• Household income: $68,710
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 154.9975
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $255,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $817 · +44.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.