14411 Palmdale Rd #1 · Victorville, CA 92392

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 114 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition 2,500 sqft lot Est $58k · 39% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this Charming Home; 2 Bedrooms & 2 Bathrooms Located in the Desirable Greenbriar 55+ Community in Victorville. Situated on a Prime Corner Space within the park! The Home features a Comfortable Floor Plan with Bright Living Areas, a Functional Kitchen, and Generously Sized Bedrooms including a Primary Suite with Private Bathroom. Recent Upgrades include a Newer HVAC System installed approximately One Year Ago, Newer Windows for enhanced energy efficiency, and a Swamp Cooler providing additional cooling comfort. Enjoy the convenience of an Exterior Laundry Area, Two Assigned Parking Spaces, and a Covered Patio Outdoor Area ideal for Relaxing or Entertaining. Centrally Loc

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Newer windows
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• NEWER WINDOWS
• TWO ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• COVERED PATIO OUTDOOR AREA
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Greenbriar Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Land lease of $679.25 per month; rent includes trash and sewer
• HOA & community: Senior community; Urban neighborhood; Park manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Greenbriar Mobile Home Park
• Utilities: Sewer paid; Public/District water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 48' x 20'; Entry on main level
• Construction: Year built: see remarks
• Exterior features: Community pool; Corner lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Entry on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available; Laundry located outside (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.11%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14411 Palmdale Rd #31	0.00mi	2/1.5	992 (+3%)	8mo	$49,900	$50	86
14000 El Evado Rd #9	0.11mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	17mo	$50,000	$52	81
14411 Palmdale Rd #64	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	1mo	$65,000	$60	74
14000 El Evado Rd #92	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	21mo	$81,000	$77	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $52,235
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $122,290
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92392

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,120	-5% $1,092	+0% $1,065	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,010
Rent	-10% $903	-5% $984	+0% $1,065	+5% $1,146	+10% $1,226
Rate	-1.0pp $1,105	-0.5pp $1,085	base $1,065	+0.5pp $1,044	+1.0pp $1,023

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14450 El Evado Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,615	$1.80	0d	3	0.26mi
14485 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$2,345	$2.09	0d	6	0.48mi
14440 Stivers Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	994	$1,950	$1.96	11d	1	0.70mi
13730 San Martin Rd Unit B Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.77mi
14374 Borego Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,080	$2.47	0d	14	0.86mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$1,899	$1.82	0d	4	0.89mi
15230 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,802	$2.24	0d	12	1.07mi
13489 Monterey Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	927	$2,195	$2.37	0d	1	1.19mi
13489 Monterey Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	927	$2,195	$2.37	2d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $12,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,936
• After-tax cash flow: $9,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. The home has a good HVAC system and a functional layout, but it could benefit from some updates to the interior walls, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom fixtures to increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets appear to be in good condition with no visible damage.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures appear to be in good condition with no visible damage.
• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping includes a tree and some rocks. The curb appeal is average.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen cabinets — Replacing outdated kitchen cabinets can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets appear to be in good condition with no visible damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · The fixtures appear to be in good condition with no visible damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · The landscaping includes a tree and some rocks. The curb appeal is average.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen cabinets — Replacing outdated kitchen cabinets can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 65,429
• Household income: $87,681
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 24% White 22% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.57%
• Current HPI: 358.5152
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $79,900 CRMLS