144 Holm Rd #119 · Watsonville, CA 95076

$329,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · Manufactured · 97 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $466k · 29% under $550/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Price. Reduced $30,000. 55+ Park. Easy access to Hwy 1 near Airport Drive. This unit is large; appx 1725 sq ft of living space, with southern exposure living room, formal dining room with built-ins, bonus family room leading out to the covered porch. The late 60's retro kitchen has a convenient circular design and is open to the common rooms. The oversized master bedroom, with adjoining large bathroom, is a main feature in this spacious dwelling. The unit is located on an above average lot size and includes ample access to all sides Private patio area behind the shed and carport area. Subject to Park Rule approval.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Easy access to hwy 1
• Bonus family room

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 1
• SOUTHERN EXPOSURE LIVING ROOM
• BONUS FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property primary ID 741517
• Financial info: In lieu of tax (ILT) tax type
• HOA & community: Has HOA; HOA fees include common area insurance, common area maintenance, and road maintenance; HOA fee $550

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned space number 119; Parking area with parking restrictions; Space rent $550/month
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public utilities; Water on site
• Home design: Single-story property; Leased land (park home site)
• Construction: Listing indicates assessor lot size source
• Exterior features: Rolled composition roof; Public utilities; Water on site

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Hood over range; Built-in oven; Built-in gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms, including a ground-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower and tub
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating
• Interior features: Separate family room; Breakfast bar and dining area in the living room; Skylight(s); Cable TV available
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $329k).
• Recommended offer: $299k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.8% in Watsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#323 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Pajaro Valley Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #43 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mar Vista Elementary (344 students, 58% FRL); Rolling Hills Middle (619 students, 96% FRL); Pajaro Valley High (1,489 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 67% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,999/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 3051% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $329k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $299,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,750
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Holm Rd #5	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (+1%)	6mo	$462,000	$265	86
144 Holm Rd #93	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-6%)	2mo	$465,000	$287	83
144 Holm Rd #85	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-6%)	10mo	$437,000	$270	75
144 Holm Rd #112	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (-12%)	1mo	$450,000	$295	74
144 Holm Rd #50	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (-9%)	14mo	$400,000	$254	67
144 Holm Rd #23	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (-7%)	20mo	$379,000	$236	65
144 Holm Rd #55	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (-14%)	4mo	$440,000	$298	63
144 Holm Rd #52	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,547 (-10%)	18mo	$395,000	$255	61
9 Pera Dr #9	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+7%)	9mo	$405,000	$220	57
501 S Green Valley Rd #3	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (-13%)	21mo	$432,500	$289	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-16,363
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $82,032
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95076

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,574

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $449	+0% $336	+5% $222	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $178	+0% $336	+5% $493	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $419	base $336	+0.5pp $250	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Jeanette Way Watsonville, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$4,999	$3.55	15d	1	0.33mi
253 Green Meadow Dr Watsonville, CA	3.0	1.5	1155	$4,250	$3.68	15d	1	0.39mi
220 Silver Leaf Dr Watsonville, CA	3.0	1.5	1191	$3,550	$2.98	15d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $329,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    price $349,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    New Price. Reduced $30,000. 55+ Park. Easy access to Hwy 1 near Airport Drive. This unit is large; appx 1725 sq ft of living space, with southern exposure living room, formal dining room with built-ins, bonus family room leading out to the covered porch. The late 60's retro kitchen has a convenient circular design and is open to the common rooms. The oversized master bedroom, with adjoining large bathroom, is a main feature in this spacious dwelling. The unit is located on an above average lot size and includes ample access to all sides Private patio area behind the shed and carport area. Subject to Park Rule approval.

19. 2026-04-16
    price $349,000 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    New Price. Reduced $30,000. 55+ Park. Easy access to Hwy 1 near Airport Drive. This unit is large; appx 1725 sq ft of living space, with southern exposure living room, formal dining room with built-ins, bonus family room leading out to the covered porch. The late 60's retro kitchen has a convenient circular design and is open to the common rooms. The oversized master bedroom, with adjoining large bathroom, is a main feature in this spacious dwelling. The unit is located on an above average lot size and includes ample access to all sides Private patio area behind the shed and carport area. Subject to Park Rule approval.

20. 2026-03-16
    listed $378,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    New Price. Reduced $30,000. 55+ Park. Easy access to Hwy 1 near Airport Drive. This unit is large; appx 1725 sq ft of living space, with southern exposure living room, formal dining room with built-ins, bonus family room leading out to the covered porch. The late 60's retro kitchen has a convenient circular design and is open to the common rooms. The oversized master bedroom, with adjoining large bathroom, is a main feature in this spacious dwelling. The unit is located on an above average lot size and includes ample access to all sides Private patio area behind the shed and carport area. Subject to Park Rule approval.

21. 2026-03-16
    listed $378,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    New Price. Reduced $30,000. 55+ Park. Easy access to Hwy 1 near Airport Drive. This unit is large; appx 1725 sq ft of living space, with southern exposure living room, formal dining room with built-ins, bonus family room leading out to the covered porch. The late 60's retro kitchen has a convenient circular design and is open to the common rooms. The oversized master bedroom, with adjoining large bathroom, is a main feature in this spacious dwelling. The unit is located on an above average lot size and includes ample access to all sides Private patio area behind the shed and carport area. Subject to Park Rule approval.

22. 2016-12-23
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Light & sunny spacious, Double wide with large family room off kitchen area. Laminate throughout, large master 14 x 19", light painted interior throughout, mirrored doors in master, large master bath w/ double sinks. Includes appliances, window coverings. Spacious south facing front porch. Located in clean well-kept 55+ park with pool, rec room with fireplace & exercise room.

23. 2016-10-17
    historical Contingent 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Light & sunny spacious, Double wide with large family room off kitchen area. Laminate throughout, large master 14 x 19", light painted interior throughout, mirrored doors in master, large master bath w/ double sinks. Includes appliances, window coverings. Spacious south facing front porch. Located in clean well-kept 55+ park with pool, rec room with fireplace & exercise room.

24. 2016-10-12
    price $149,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Light & sunny spacious, Double wide with large family room off kitchen area. Laminate throughout, large master 14 x 19", light painted interior throughout, mirrored doors in master, large master bath w/ double sinks. Includes appliances, window coverings. Spacious south facing front porch. Located in clean well-kept 55+ park with pool, rec room with fireplace & exercise room.

25. 2016-09-27
    status Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Light & sunny spacious, Double wide with large family room off kitchen area. Laminate throughout, large master 14 x 19", light painted interior throughout, mirrored doors in master, large master bath w/ double sinks. Includes appliances, window coverings. Spacious south facing front porch. Located in clean well-kept 55+ park with pool, rec room with fireplace & exercise room.

26. 2016-09-27
    historical Contingent 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Light & sunny spacious, Double wide with large family room off kitchen area. Laminate throughout, large master 14 x 19", light painted interior throughout, mirrored doors in master, large master bath w/ double sinks. Includes appliances, window coverings. Spacious south facing front porch. Located in clean well-kept 55+ park with pool, rec room with fireplace & exercise room.

27. 2016-09-14
    listed $169,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Light & sunny spacious, Double wide with large family room off kitchen area. Laminate throughout, large master 14 x 19", light painted interior throughout, mirrored doors in master, large master bath w/ double sinks. Includes appliances, window coverings. Spacious south facing front porch. Located in clean well-kept 55+ park with pool, rec room with fireplace & exercise room.

28. 2012-10-31
    soldstatus $77,000 Sold
29. 2012-09-25
    status Pending Without Release
30. 2012-08-23
    price $77,000
31. 2012-07-25
    price $69,000
32. 2012-06-12
    listed $79,000 Active
33. 2010-08-17
    soldstatus $82,000 Sold
34. 2010-07-23
    status Pending Without Release
35. 2010-05-22
    listed $85,000 Active
36. 1999-04-27
    historical
37. 1999-03-27
    soldstatus $76,500
38. 1999-02-07
    listed $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,839
• − Management: −$3,839
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $4,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pajaro Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629490
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 42.00%
• Median HH income: $60,619
• Composite: 64.53/100
• National rank: #537
• State rank: #43 of 517 in CA

Livability — Watsonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #10972

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watsonville, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• City population: 82,806
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 82,806
• Household income: $91,099
• Rent vs Own: 43.3% rent · 56.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3051.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -883.52%
• Current HPI: 273.5604
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+339.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $349,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $349,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-16 Listed $378,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-16 Listed $378,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-12-23 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MLSListings
• 2016-10-17 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2016-10-12 Price Changed $149,000 MLSListings
• 2016-09-27 Relisted — MLSListings
• 2016-09-27 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2016-09-14 Listed $169,000 MLSListings
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) $77,000 MLSListings
• 2012-09-25 Pending — MLSListings
• 2012-08-23 Price Changed $77,000 MLSListings
• 2012-07-25 Price Changed $69,000 MLSListings
• 2012-06-12 Listed $79,000 MLSListings
• 2010-08-17 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MLSListings
• 2010-07-23 Pending — MLSListings
• 2010-05-22 Listed $85,000 MLSListings
• 1999-04-27 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 1999-03-27 Sold (MLS) $76,500 MLSListings
• 1999-02-07 Listed $79,500 MLSListings