2207 Madison Ave · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$104,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1960 Fair condition $78/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in the Heart of Port Bolivar minutes from the Galveston Ferry. Close to local beaches, boat launches, and restaurant. If you wanted a quaint beach retreat this is your chance. Spacious gutted home 3 BR 1 Bath. Call for more information. Home is being sold As is cash deal only.

Key facts

• Close to restaurant
• Listed 172 days

Tags

• CLOSE TO LOCAL BEACHES
• CLOSE TO BOAT LAUNCHES
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 2.6% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1065 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.76%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,101
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -64.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2207 Nelson Ave	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,156 (-14%)	2mo	$385,000	$333	64
1406 23rd St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	18mo	$444,500	$304	59
1415 Quarles Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+5%)	21mo	$150,000	$107	41
1831 Front Ave	0.98mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-9%)	15mo	$255,000	$208	36
908 20th St	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	2mo	$139,900	$121	36
1215 Pickney Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-19%)	9mo	$140,000	$128	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $13,708
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $52,660
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $379,950 ($300/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -27.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1065
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $505	+0% $475	+5% $446	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $292	-5% $384	+0% $475	+5% $567	+10% $659
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $502	base $475	+0.5pp $448	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1037 Sunset DR Unit 1598138P Bolivar Peninsula, TX	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,910	$1.74	1d	1	0.53mi
920 17th St Unit 1495910P Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$2,248	$2.15	156d	1	0.94mi
920 17th St Unit 1385489P Port Bolivar, TX	2.0–6.0	1.0–3.0	2093	$3,369	$1.61	0d	2	0.94mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence (Residential property)
• Construction: Single family construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-31
   days on market $104,900 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-10-30
   days on market $104,900 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-10-29
   days on market $104,900 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-10-28
   days on market $104,900 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-10-27
   days on market $104,900 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-10-26
   days on market $104,900 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-10-25
   days on market $104,900 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-10-24
   days on market $104,900 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-10-23
   days on market $104,900 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-10-22
    days on market $104,900 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-10-21
    days on market $104,900 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-10-20
    days on market $104,900 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-10-19
    days on market $104,900 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-10-18
    days on market $104,900 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-10-17
    days on market $104,900 Active 158 DOM
16. 2026-10-16
    days on market $104,900 Active 157 DOM
17. 2026-10-15
    days on market $104,900 Active 156 DOM
18. 2026-10-14
    days on market $104,900 Active 155 DOM
19. 2026-10-13
    days on market $104,900 Active 154 DOM
20. 2026-10-12
    days on market $104,900 Active 153 DOM
21. 2026-10-11
    days on market $104,900 Active 152 DOM
22. 2026-10-10
    days on market $104,900 Active 151 DOM
23. 2026-10-09
    days on market $104,900 Active 150 DOM
24. 2026-10-08
    days on market $104,900 Active 149 DOM
25. 2026-10-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 148 DOM
26. 2026-10-06
    days on market $104,900 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-10-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 146 DOM
28. 2026-10-04
    days on market $104,900 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-10-04
    days on market $104,900 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-10-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-10-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 142 DOM
32. 2026-09-30
    days on market $104,900 Active 141 DOM
33. 2026-09-29
    days on market $104,900 Active 140 DOM
34. 2026-09-28
    days on market $104,900 Active 139 DOM
35. 2026-09-27
    days on market $104,900 Active 138 DOM
36. 2026-09-26
    days on market $104,900 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-09-25
    days on market $104,900 Active 136 DOM
38. 2026-09-24
    days on market $104,900 Active 135 DOM
39. 2026-09-23
    days on market $104,900 Active 134 DOM
40. 2026-09-22
    days on market $104,900 Active 133 DOM
41. 2026-09-21
    days on market $104,900 Active 132 DOM
42. 2026-09-20
    days on market $104,900 Active 131 DOM
43. 2026-09-19
    days on market $104,900 Active 130 DOM
44. 2026-09-18
    days on market $104,900 Active 129 DOM
45. 2026-09-17
    days on market $104,900 Active 128 DOM
46. 2026-09-16
    days on market $104,900 Active 127 DOM
47. 2026-09-15
    days on market $104,900 Active 126 DOM
48. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $104,900 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-09-13
    days on market $115,000 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-09-12
    days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$727/yr (+$61/mo · 60.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$8,552
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $4,774
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $4,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $33,600–$60,480 screening

This single-family home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on exterior siding, flooring, and interior walls. Upgrades in these areas would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring wood

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Major flooring — Worn wood flooring
• Minor interior walls — Minor scuffing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morgan El Magnet School B TX #257/4,322 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Central Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence (Residential property)
• Construction: Single family construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

Price history

-39.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 BBOR
• 2025-10-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $169,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $189,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,193 · -53.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.