Sentosa Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$250,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cottage II is a collection of new homes for sale at Elm Creek, a masterplan community in the charming city of Elgin, TX. The community offers affordable homes and access to a state-of-the-art community center. There are tons of local shops and restaurants nearby, plus Austin is only 40 minutes away for more entertainment options.

Key facts

• Masterplan community
• Community center
• Restaurants nearby

Tags

• COMMUNITY CENTER
• LOCAL SHOPS
• RESTAURANTS NEARBY
• MASTERPLAN COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: By appointment only showing
• Financial info: List price $250,999

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 parking spaces total
• Home design: Single-family plan (Sentosa); Located in Elgin, TX
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,575

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Sentosa)

🏗️ New construction. The $250,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,348.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,889 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,348
• List price: $250,999
• Delta: -6.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	89
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	79
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	78
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	77
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	77
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	77
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	73
23501 Firelight Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	71
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	68
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	67
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	66
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $136,851
• Equity at exit: $240,848

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $410,714
• Equity at exit: $519,398

Cash invested: $74,857 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,402
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,010/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,339

Max offer price $246,792

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,837
• Closing costs: $8,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	21d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	17d	1	0.17mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	43d	1	0.24mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.59mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.60mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.64mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	23d	1	0.64mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	43d	1	0.65mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.72mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	0.74mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.83mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.85mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	0.88mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	0.98mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.98mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,999 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,999 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,999 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,999 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,999 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,999 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,999 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,999 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $250,999 Active 331-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,976
• − Property taxes: −$4,010
• − Insurance: −$1,337
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − Depreciation: −$7,777
• Taxable loss: −$6,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and landscaping. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B