442 Kellogg Ave · Luling, LA 70070

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1970 7,740 sqft lot $82/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in Lulling! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers ample space, great layout, spacious backyard, shed for storage, and a 2 car garage. Customize and make it into your own haven. Located in a great neighborhood on a nice tree lined street. Vacant and easy to show. Measurements are estimated. Buyer to verify.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Spacious backyard
• Tree lined street

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• TREE LINED STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.0% in Luling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#144 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St. Charles Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #14 of 98 in LA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 74 units permitted in St. Charles Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.64%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,707
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -53.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Kellogg Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,959 (+11%)	1mo	$210,000	$107	78
322 Balboa Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,844 (+5%)	6mo	$360,000	$195	65
243 River Oaks Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+9%)	1mo	$275,000	$144	64
319 Wanda St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+5%)	4mo	$365,000	$197	64
418 Lakewood Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,767 (+0%)	3mo	$320,000	$181	62
321 Wanda St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+5%)	8mo	$369,000	$199	61
150 W Heather Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,715 (-3%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	59
335 Saint Nicholas St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+4%)	7mo	$287,000	$157	57
241 Mimosa Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-9%)	5mo	$283,400	$177	55
326 Valencia Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-11%)	9mo	$275,000	$175	52
128 Allison Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+11%)	2mo	$365,000	$187	42
123 Braden Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+13%)	5mo	$384,500	$193	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-16,685
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,983
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70070

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,099/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 River Oaks Dr Luling, LA	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,200	$1.16	24d	1	0.29mi
108 River Ridge Dr Boutte, LA	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,300	$0.93	44d	1	0.83mi
352 Woodland Dr Boutte, LA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,300	$1.02	44d	1	0.99mi
354 Woodland Dr Boutte, LA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,200	$0.94	44d	1	0.99mi
133 Lakewood Dr Unit A Luling, LA	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,700	$1.15	21d	1	1.22mi
121 Lakewood Dr Unit 60 Luling, LA	2.0	1.0	1266	$1,250	$0.99	24d	1	1.38mi
115 Savanna Dr Luling, LA	4.0	2.0	2233	$2,700	$1.21	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $144,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Lulling! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers ample space, great layout, spacious backyard, shed for storage, and a 2 car garage. Customize and make it into your own haven. Located in a great neighborhood on a nice tree lined street. Vacant and easy to show. Measurements are estimated. Buyer to verify.

17. 2026-05-12
    price $144,900 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Lulling! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers ample space, great layout, spacious backyard, shed for storage, and a 2 car garage. Customize and make it into your own haven. Located in a great neighborhood on a nice tree lined street. Vacant and easy to show. Measurements are estimated. Buyer to verify.

18. 2026-04-15
    listed $149,900 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Lulling! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers ample space, great layout, spacious backyard, shed for storage, and a 2 car garage. Customize and make it into your own haven. Located in a great neighborhood on a nice tree lined street. Vacant and easy to show. Measurements are estimated. Buyer to verify.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $149,900 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Lulling! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers ample space, great layout, spacious backyard, shed for storage, and a 2 car garage. Customize and make it into your own haven. Located in a great neighborhood on a nice tree lined street. Vacant and easy to show. Measurements are estimated. Buyer to verify.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,099
• − Insurance: −$5,843
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Charles Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201440
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $60,261
• Composite: 40.0/100
• National rank: #3830
• State rank: #14 of 98 in LA

Livability — Luling

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #12653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luling, LA
• County: Saint Charles Parish · 27,180 people
• City population: 13,960
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 13,960
• Household income: $76,539
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 362.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,296 people
• By 2030: 53,030 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 51,646 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,771 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 46,993 · -11.8%
• By 2100: 44,473 · -16.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 18% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.92%
• Current HPI: 196.2122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $144,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $144,900 GSREIN
• 2026-04-15 Listed $149,900 GSREIN
• 2026-04-15 Listed $149,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,099 · +22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.