629 N 3rd St · Dupo, IL 62239

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1958 $86/sqft · 17% below area Est $144k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1958
• Listed 91 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#208 in IL, #3,916 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Dupo CUSD 196 (suburban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #543 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,262
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -16.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 Audry Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	2mo	$207,000	$142	87
120 N 7th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-1%)	4mo	$199,900	$146	71
205 N 3rd St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	8mo	$130,000	$97	69
405 N 4th St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-5%)	16mo	$114,900	$87	63
905 Kaestner Drive Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-5%)	23mo	$180,000	$136	60
529 N 5th St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-4%)	24mo	$189,500	$142	60
236 Richard Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,464 (+5%)	7mo	$114,500	$78	51
113 S 2nd St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-13%)	4mo	$134,900	$111	50
300 Admiral Trost Dr	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	10mo	$125,000	$93	44
300 Stone St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,189 (-15%)	7mo	$132,500	$111	41
312 Lime	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-15%)	11mo	$18,500	$16	36
129 S 5th St	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,192 (-14%)	14mo	$50,000	$42	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-11,117
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,094
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62239

• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-03-09
   price $120,000
7. 2026-03-08
   listed $37,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $1,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dupo CUSD 196
• NCES district ID: 1712720
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $44,220
• Composite: 11.52/100
• National rank: #9701
• State rank: #543 of 620 in IL

Livability — Dupo

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dupo, IL
• City population: 1,994
• Population (ZIP): 4,381

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.86%
• Current HPI: 93.13
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+220.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Listed $37,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-30.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $11 · -99.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.