309 Water Oak Rd · Flowood, MS 39047

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1995 0.26 ac lot Est $262k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect starter home - 3 bed room/2 full bath, quiet neighborhood; Ready to move in. Spacious throughout, walk in closet in master bedroom, door to back patio; Newly screened patio, quiet patio setting for a morning coffee or just chill out in the back facing shaded trees on large grassy back yard; "Freshly Painted interior walls and front of the house and pressure washed " Kitchen cabinets will be painted in a couple of days.

Key facts

• Tile floors
• New landscaping
• Medallion focal tile

Tags

• NEW LANDSCAPING
• HARDY BOARD
• NEW WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DEEP BOWL LARGE SINK
• MEDALLION FOCAL TILE
• TILE FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: Appraiser
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $150 (includes management); Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing front
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; House; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick and HardiPlank-type siding; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation and slab; Built year source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Patio (screened); Back yard fencing (wood); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Oven; Self-cleaning oven; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heat; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Storage; Dead bolt locks; Prewired security; Smoke detector(s); Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($412/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flowood Elementary School (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #65 of 375 statewide, top 20%, 489 students, 99% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,609 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1401 Barnett Bend Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-1%)	3mo	$239,900	$167	81
301 White Oak Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+7%)	3mo	$279,500	$179	79
344 White Oak Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-9%)	2mo	$244,000	$184	71
100 Summerdale Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	0mo	$287,000	$199	69
188 Oak Grove Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+8%)	1mo	$264,900	$169	68
214 Chinkapen Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+12%)	3mo	$282,000	$173	67
509 Suffolk Cv	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$195	66
132 Post Oak Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-5%)	1mo	$250,000	$180	63
129 Post Oak Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-4%)	2mo	$240,000	$171	63
222 Cherrybark Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-8%)	3mo	$240,000	$179	56
813 Whippoorwill Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-8%)	0mo	$254,000	$189	55
424 Timber Ridge Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-6%)	3mo	$249,900	$183	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,237
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-33,487
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $108	+0% $34	+5% $-39	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-46	+0% $34	+5% $115	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $100	base $34	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 Barnett Bend Cir Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,625	$1.44	23d	1	0.38mi
301 Jasmine Ct Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,200	$1.22	45d	1	0.82mi
500 Avalon Way Brandon, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1287	$2,052	$1.59	15d	6	1.00mi
111 Lakeshore Dr Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,218	$2.28	15d	8	1.14mi
352 Brendalwood Cv Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1248	$1,157	$0.93	45d	1	1.40mi
224 Jacks Pl Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,100	$1.39	45d	1	1.41mi
508 Stockton Cv Flowood, MS	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,806	$1.42	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $259,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$974/yr (+$81/mo · 90.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$4,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $1,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+120.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $259,900 MLSU
• 2017-12-18 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-09-30 Listed $159,900 MLSU
• 2016-04-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-02-10 Listed $159,900 MLSU
• 2002-09-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2002-06-08 Listed $117,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,079 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.