421 N 21st St · Herrin, IL 62948

$58,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Built 1910 4,125 sqft lot $64/sqft · 20% below area Est $73k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and cozy 2 bedroom home in Herrin. The home is rented with a wonderful tenant and consistently brings monthly income. The house sits on a corner lot and features a side deck for outdoor relaxing. There is a carport in the back as well.

Key facts

• Side deck
• Carport
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SIDE DECK
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 8.7% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Herrin C U S D 4 Elem School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #929 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 679 students, 0% FRL); Herrin Middle School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #318 of 665 statewide, top 48%, 507 students, 0% FRL); Herrin High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $407 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.64%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,186
• List price: $58,900
• Delta: -19.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 N 18th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	902 (-2%)	1mo	$93,000	$103	86
804 W Harrison St	0.35mi	2/1.0	940 (+2%)	2mo	$71,000	$76	80
710 W Maple St	0.41mi	2/1.0	932 (+1%)	1mo	$94,800	$102	79
1117 W Cherry St	0.33mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	6mo	$79,900	$82	69
520 N 27th St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	8mo	$105,000	$109	69
501 N 18th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	824 (-11%)	7mo	$62,500	$76	67
708 N 20th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,044 (+13%)	5mo	$86,000	$82	65
211 W Bryan St	0.55mi	2/1.0	984 (+6%)	1mo	$55,000	$56	63
304 N 18th St	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+10%)	15mo	$90,000	$88	55
1316 N Park Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	990 (+7%)	1mo	$82,300	$83	54
404 S 23rd St	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	12mo	$87,500	$88	48
408 N 12th St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	810 (-12%)	4mo	$60,000	$74	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $18,182
• Equity at exit: $8,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $51,618
• Equity at exit: $5,093

Cash invested: $16,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,146/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $543

Max offer price $58,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $452	+0% $435	+5% $418	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $348	-5% $392	+0% $435	+5% $478	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $450	base $435	+0.5pp $420	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,725
• Closing costs: $1,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 N 35th St Unit D Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	45d	1	0.83mi
6 Court C Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	45d	1	0.88mi
3 Ct D Herrin, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $58,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $58,900 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,900 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,900 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,900 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,900 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,900 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,900 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,900 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $58,900 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $58,900 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $58,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,900 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $58,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,900 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,900 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,900 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-04-16
    price $58,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Cute and cozy 2 bedroom home in Herrin. The home is rented with a wonderful tenant and consistently brings monthly income. The house sits on a corner lot and features a side deck for outdoor relaxing. There is a carport in the back as well.

20. 2026-01-28
    historical
21. 2026-01-20
    status Active
22. 2026-01-14
    historical
23. 2026-01-08
    status Active
24. 2026-01-05
    historical
25. 2025-10-22
    status Active
26. 2025-10-22
    price
27. 2025-10-22
    historical
28. 2025-09-14
    status Pending
29. 2025-09-08
    listed Active
30. 2025-09-04
    listed $68,900 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Cute and cozy 2 bedroom home in Herrin. The home is rented with a wonderful tenant and consistently brings monthly income. The house sits on a corner lot and features a side deck for outdoor relaxing. There is a carport in the back as well.

31. 2021-08-06
    historical
32. 2021-08-06
    historical
33. 2021-08-06
    historical
34. 2021-08-06
    historical
35. 2018-09-04
    soldstatus $42,600
36. 2018-09-04
    soldstatus $42,600
37. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus $43,000
38. 2018-05-01
    listed $45,000
39. 2018-05-01
    listed $45,000
40. 2015-08-10
    historical
41. 2010-01-11
    soldstatus $50,000
42. 2010-01-11
    soldstatus $50,000
43. 2010-01-11
    soldstatus $50,000
44. 2009-02-09
    listed $57,000
45. 2009-02-09
    listed $57,000
46. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus $38,000
47. 2002-12-24
    historical
48. 2002-10-09
    historical
49. 2002-06-24
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,146 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,299
• − Property taxes: −$1,146
• − Insurance: −$294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$1,713
• Taxable income: $4,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $4,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+55.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $58,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-14 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $68,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-04 Sold (MLS) $42,600 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-04 Sold (MLS) $42,600 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-01 Listed $45,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-01 Listed $45,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-09 Listed $57,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-09 Listed $57,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,146 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.