2525 Oyster Creek Bnd · Oyster Creek, TX 77541

$108,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2003 7,622 sqft lot $89/sqft · 7% below area Est $117k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Updated and Spacious Mobile Home. This well-maintained and spacious mobile home is move-in ready and perfect for a It features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, along with fresh interior and exterior paint. Recent upgrades include a new roof, new flooring, new faucets, and a new pantry, giving the home a clean and modern feel. Conveniently located near schools, City Hall, a local park, and gas stations, this property offers everyday convenience while still providing a peaceful setting. It is also just north of Surfside Beach and Quintana Beach, making coastal getaways quick and easy. Also convenient located near mall, stores, restaurants and shopping centers. Schedule a tour tod

Key facts

• Near schools
• New pantry
• New faucets

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW FAUCETS
• NEW PANTRY
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR LOCAL PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2003; Cement siding; Block foundation; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Additional parcels present

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 8 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 0.8% in Oyster Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,483 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Freeport El (579 students, 89% FRL); O'Hara Lanier Middle (math 41% / reading 29%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 340 students, 92% FRL); Brazosport H S (math 40% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 948 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 53% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $750 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,245 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.82%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,000
• List price: $108,500
• Delta: -7.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2529 Mcdonald Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$119,000	$98	96
2525 Mcdonald Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$109,900	$90	90
2515 Oyster Creek Bnd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	7mo	$137,500	$102	75
210 Lake Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$115,000	$95	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $13,373
• Equity at exit: $16,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $51,510
• Equity at exit: $9,381

Cash invested: $30,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77541

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$569
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $108,500

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $517	+0% $486	+5% $455	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $426	+0% $486	+5% $546	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $541	-0.5pp $514	base $486	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,125
• Closing costs: $3,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $108,500 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,500 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,500 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,500 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,500 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,500 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,500 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,500 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $108,500 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,500 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,500 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,500 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,500 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $108,500 Active 702-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    historical $1,150
18. 2026-04-30
    historical
19. 2026-03-31
    price $1,150
20. 2026-01-31
    listed $1,200
21. 2026-01-30
    price $108,500
22. 2026-01-02
    listed $115,000 Active
23. 2025-12-31
    historical
24. 2025-12-10
    historical $1,200
25. 2025-12-08
    listed $115,000 Active
26. 2025-12-08
    historical
27. 2025-10-22
    price $1,200
28. 2025-10-20
    price $115,000
29. 2025-07-11
    listed $1,400
30. 2025-07-02
    listed $121,000 Active
31. 2021-04-12
    historical
32. 2021-02-02
    price $92,500
33. 2021-01-06
    listed $95,000 Active
34. 2019-06-21
    historical
35. 2019-06-11
    price $79,900
36. 2019-05-29
    price $82,500
37. 2019-04-05
    price $84,500
38. 2019-01-03
    listed $89,500 Active
39. 2013-01-01
    historical
40. 2011-11-28
    listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,986 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,566/yr (+$131/mo · 373.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,078
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$3,156
• Taxable income: $4,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $4,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oyster Creek

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1483
• US rank: #25420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Creek, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,996
• Household income: $66,507
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 38% Two or more races 23% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.12%
• Current HPI: 265.9301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $108,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Rental Removed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $108,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Rental Removed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $121,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-02-02 Price Changed $92,500 HARMLS
• 2021-01-06 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-11 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2019-05-29 Price Changed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2019-04-05 Price Changed $84,500 HARMLS
• 2019-01-03 Listed $89,500 HARMLS
• 2013-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-28 Listed $100,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.