217 Splittail Way · Napa, CA 94558

$837,730

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $362/sqft · 12% below area Est $948k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Residence 2 at Foundry meets you one step ahead of your dream home's design. Across three stories and 2,311 square feet of cleverly crafted space, Residence 2 brings a blank-canvas main living room adjacent to a contemporary kitchen with an island and generous walk-in pantry. On the top floor, a primary suite with a window seat creates the perfect nook to catch up with a good book or for your furry friends to sunbathe. This expansive bedroom also provides a walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with dual sinks, so an at-home spa moment is always well within reach.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• MAIN LIVING ROOM
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WINDOW SEAT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $838k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $481k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (49.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.2% in Napa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Elementary (381 students, 86% FRL); Silverado Middle (868 students, 77% FRL); Napa High (1,762 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($825k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $420,480 (49.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.62%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $947,877
• List price: $837,730
• Delta: -11.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Compass Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,311 (0%)	8mo	$869,361	$376	87
342 Sagebrush Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	2mo	$884,256	$346	77
325 Sagebrush Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,340 (+1%)	20mo	$1,003,458	$429	77
156 Compass Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,138 (-8%)	8mo	$818,120	$383	76
347 Cordelia Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	8mo	$954,247	$373	70
319 Flagship Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	13mo	$899,430	$351	67
315 Flagship Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,598 (+12%)	10mo	$959,000	$369	66
309 Sagebrush Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	20mo	$1,007,790	$394	62
307 Flagship Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,559 (+11%)	20mo	$928,320	$363	62
106 Compass Dr	0.13mi	3/4.5 (-1)	2,600 (+12%)	8mo	$785,309	$302	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-305,168
• Equity at exit: $124,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -95.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.20×
• Total profit: $-515,469
• Equity at exit: $72,432

Cash invested: $234,564 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 186.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $924,780 ($353/sqft)
• Median days on market: 21 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,047 /mo · $12,566/yr
• Insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$883
• Net cashflow: $-2,468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,328

Max offer price $480,668

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,889	-5% $-2,178	+0% $-2,468	+5% $-2,757	+10% $-3,047
Rent	-10% $-2,800	-5% $-2,634	+0% $-2,468	+5% $-2,301	+10% $-2,135
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,046	-0.5pp $-2,255	base $-2,468	+0.5pp $-2,685	+1.0pp $-2,905

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $209,432
• Closing costs: $25,132
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $837,730 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $837,730 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $837,730 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $837,730 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $837,730 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $837,730 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $837,730 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $837,730 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $837,730 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $837,730 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,926
• − Property taxes: −$12,566
• − Insurance: −$4,189
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,037
• − Management: −$4,037
• − Depreciation: −$24,370
• Taxable loss: −$45,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,960
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Phillips Elementary Middle Silverado Middle High Napa High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 153,987 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

---

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B