2551 Bluebeard Ln E · Mobile, AL 36695

$259,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2010 6,699 sqft lot Est $281k · 8% under $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location near schools and shopping! This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath brick home, built in 2010, is waiting for it's new owner. As you enter, you'll find an open and inviting floor plan with the 4th bedroom immediately to the left, could be perfect for a home office or study. Spacious dining area, family room, and kitchen flow seamlessly together, creating an ideal space for entertaining and everyday living. The primary suite features a walk-in closet, garden tub, and separate shower. The kitchen offers an eat-in bar, center island, and breakfast nook for added convenience and functionality. Nice fenced in backyard, double garage, storage building, and generator. Priced to sell q

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Eat-in bar

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• EAT-IN BAR
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $172

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (2 spaces); Total parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity available (110 volts + other); Natural gas available; Public sewer; Water available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Located in Gardens Of Cottage Hill subdivision
• Construction: Brick 4 sides construction; Built in 2010; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Shed(s); Scenic/view available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Other built-in appliance(s)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Gas log fireplace; Separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen with island; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections available (utilities include water and sewer)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($637/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Orourke Elementary School (math 27% / reading 59%, grade F, #204 of 627 statewide, top 33%, 862 students, 54% FRL); Bernice J Causey Middle School (math 17% / reading 51%, grade F, #98 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 1,418 students, 53% FRL); Baker High School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 2,491 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 67% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 557 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,570 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8451 Placid Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$121	80
8406 Champlain Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-11%)	1mo	$247,900	$143	70
2575 Rosebud Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (-12%)	2mo	$263,000	$153	69
2261 Vulcan Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (-4%)	2mo	$260,000	$139	68
2520 Rosebud Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (-15%)	0mo	$239,000	$144	65
2271 Carrington Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,824 (-6%)	3mo	$320,000	$175	63
2165 E Spring Grv	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,883 (-3%)	1mo	$279,000	$148	58
7607 Anglebrook Rd S	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,047 (+5%)	0mo	$340,650	$166	57
8750 Zeeland Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-1%)	7mo	$278,500	$144	57
8569 Anvil Ct E	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,090 (+7%)	6mo	$270,000	$129	56
2154 O'rourke Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,080 (+7%)	8mo	$292,000	$140	50
8700 Irongate Way	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-10%)	2mo	$239,500	$137	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-44,593
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-57,713
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $126	+0% $53	+5% $-20	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-26	+0% $53	+5% $132	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $119	base $53	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2719 Rosebud Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,950	$1.14	15d	1	0.25mi
2346 Bobwhite Trl W Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,650	$0.93	22d	1	0.65mi
2212 Summer Xing Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	0.77mi
8361 Jeptha Ct Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	0.81mi
2147 Seasons Ct Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,625	$1.02	45d	1	0.85mi
1718 Calgary Dr W Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	45d	1	1.19mi
2175 Schillinger Rd S Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$1,790	$1.51	15d	11	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $259,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,500 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,500 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,500 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,500 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,500 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,500 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,500 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,500 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,500 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,500 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,500 Active 11 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    listed $269,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 72.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$937
• After-tax cash flow: $1,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $259,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-19 Listed $269,500 GCMLS AL