5836 Willow Ridge Rd · Pinson, AL 35126

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1977 0.34 ac lot Est $165k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath features hardwoods in dining room and foyer. Fenced in backyard.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Fenced-in backyard
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PRIVATE LOT
• PINSON SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.34 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Electric water heater; Internet service available
• Home design: Existing construction; Single-family property (subdivision: Willow Ridge)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Open deck; No pool; No patio; No garden/patio area; Not waterfront; Flood plain: No; No lot view noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops; Electric cooktop; Built-in dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with garden tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceilings described as 'Other (See Remarks)'; No additional built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in a closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pinson Elementary School (801 students, 54% FRL); Pinson Valley High School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #246 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,029 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,576 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,308
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5150 Amberwood Ln	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-2%)	2mo	$155,000	$137	89
5781 Desoto Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-0%)	20mo	$145,000	$126	77
5135 Amberwood Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,135 (-2%)	11mo	$162,000	$143	76
5819 Balboa Ter	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-4%)	10mo	$159,900	$145	73
5943 Honeysuckle Cir	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-3%)	14mo	$150,000	$134	66
5740 Balboa Ter	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-4%)	22mo	$110,000	$100	64
5270 Willow Ridge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	23mo	$199,000	$178	54
5100 Willow Ridge Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+12%)	12mo	$150,000	$116	52
6128 Summer Side Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,136 (-2%)	20mo	$259,000	$228	47
5437 Balboa Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,290 (+12%)	2mo	$230,000	$178	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,927
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $671
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35126

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5764 Desoto Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,225	$1.11	1d	1	0.15mi
5944 Tyler Loop Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,485	$1.19	23d	1	0.34mi
4464 Winchester Hills Ln Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	11d	1	0.85mi
4464 Winchester Hills Way Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,750	$1.49	43d	1	0.86mi
1104 Oak Creek Trl NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,543	$1.25	1d	1	0.91mi
2504 Beechwood Trl Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,435	$1.06	21d	1	1.04mi
4246 Centerwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,450	$1.09	16d	1	1.22mi
2561 Gaylon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1318	$1,345	$1.02	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $154,900 Active
15. 2024-03-12
    soldstatus $417,784,000
16. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus $58,000 Sold 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath features hardwoods in dining room and foyer. Fenced in backyard.

17. 2016-08-12
    historical 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath features hardwoods in dining room and foyer. Fenced in backyard.

18. 2016-06-17
    status Pending 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath features hardwoods in dining room and foyer. Fenced in backyard.

19. 2016-05-26
    listed $52,000 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath features hardwoods in dining room and foyer. Fenced in backyard.

20. 2013-10-03
    soldstatus $84,900
21. 2013-09-26
    soldstatus $84,900 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Hardwoods in Dining Room & Foyer. Updated Baths. Crown Molding. Fabulous, Big, Fenced Back Yard for Kids! Deck & Patio for Entertaining. Per Seller: Kitchen Countertops ~ 2011; Tile Backsplash in Kitchen ~ 2011; Hardwoods in Dining Room & Foyer ~ 2011. Roof ~ 2013, Gutters ~ 2013. Qualifies USDA Rural.

22. 2013-05-09
    listed $84,900 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Hardwoods in Dining Room & Foyer. Updated Baths. Crown Molding. Fabulous, Big, Fenced Back Yard for Kids! Deck & Patio for Entertaining. Per Seller: Kitchen Countertops ~ 2011; Tile Backsplash in Kitchen ~ 2011; Hardwoods in Dining Room & Foyer ~ 2011. Roof ~ 2013, Gutters ~ 2013. Qualifies USDA Rural.

23. 2004-07-02
    soldstatus $79,000
24. 1993-09-28
    soldstatus $57,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$96
• After-tax cash flow: $2,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pinson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #18763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinson, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 22,599
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,599
• Household income: $83,732
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 267.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.52%
• Current HPI: 188.6439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+170.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $154,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $417,784,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $58,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-08-12 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-06-17 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-05-26 Listed $52,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records
• 2013-09-26 Sold (MLS) $84,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-05-09 Listed $84,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2004-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1993-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $57,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.