8305 Jordan Hill Rd · Richburg, NY 14715

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1900 5.00 ac lot $80/sqft · 13% below area Est $132k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a peaceful country setting, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home or camp sits on approximately 5 acres and offers the kind of privacy, outdoor enjoyment, and recreational appeal that is hard to find. The property features a scenic pond, a wraparound deck with hot tub, multiple outbuildings, and a spacious yard surrounded by woods and abundant wildlife. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, hunting camp, or investment property, this one has strong upside. The home does need a little TLC, but with some vision and improvements, it has the potential to become a great country home or retreat. If you have been looking for an affordable property with land, water, and room to make it your own, this is one worth seeing.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Scenic pond
• Hot tub

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• SCENIC POND
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• HOT TUB
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#994 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,387
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -13.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2701 Apple Tree Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$70,000	$49	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $28,436
• Equity at exit: $60,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $83,034
• Equity at exit: $101,864

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14715

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful country setting, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home or camp sits on approximately 5 acres and offers the kind of privacy, outdoor enjoyment, and recreational appeal that is hard to find. The property features a scenic pond, a wraparound deck with hot tub, multiple outbuildings, and a spacious yard surrounded by woods and abundant wildlife. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, hunting camp, or investment property, this one has strong upside. The home does need a little TLC, but with some vision and improvements, it has the potential to become a great country home or retreat. If you have been looking for an affordable property with land, water, and room to make it your own, this is one worth seeing.

2. 2026-04-20
   listed $114,900 Active 756-char remark

   Show marketing remark (756 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful country setting, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home or camp sits on approximately 5 acres and offers the kind of privacy, outdoor enjoyment, and recreational appeal that is hard to find. The property features a scenic pond, a wraparound deck with hot tub, multiple outbuildings, and a spacious yard surrounded by woods and abundant wildlife. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, hunting camp, or investment property, this one has strong upside. The home does need a little TLC, but with some vision and improvements, it has the potential to become a great country home or retreat. If you have been looking for an affordable property with land, water, and room to make it your own, this is one worth seeing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,376
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$736
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$177
• After-tax cash flow: $1,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar-Richburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600012
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,153
• Composite: 42.26/100
• National rank: #3277
• State rank: #395 of 590 in NY

Livability — Richburg

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #994
• US rank: #19418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 322
• Population (ZIP): 2,374

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Current HPI: 312.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,376 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.