1031 N 43rd Cir · Show Low, AZ 85901

$196,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1971 6,534 sqft lot $136/sqft · 19% below area Est $242k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home in a well established neighborhood. Quiet neighborhood with lots of mature trees. Tankless water heater, newer windows, natural gas stove/oven. This place is ready to go, move in ready. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of the White Mountains. Just minutes from shopping and recreation. All measurements approx. Buyer to verify all pertinent information.

Key facts

• Newer windows
• Mature trees
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NATURAL GAS STOVE OVEN
• MATURE TREES
• WELL ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $695 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $196k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,240 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,500
• List price: $196,000
• Delta: -19.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 N 45Th Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$335,000	$218	78
820 N 43rd Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+8%)	9mo	$299,900	$193	74
521 N 41St Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	22mo	$295,000	$236	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,541
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $68,075
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,940/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $196,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4680 W Mogollon Dr Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,500	$2.17	13d	1	0.33mi
2890 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,700	$1.63	43d	1	0.81mi
2850 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,700	$1.66	13d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $196,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $196,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $196,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $196,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $196,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $196,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $196,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $196,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $196,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $196,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $196,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $196,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-03-22
    listed $219,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in a well established neighborhood. Quiet neighborhood with lots of mature trees. Tankless water heater, newer windows, natural gas stove/oven. This place is ready to go, move in ready. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of the White Mountains. Just minutes from shopping and recreation. All measurements approx. Buyer to verify all pertinent information.

18. 2025-11-11
    price $196,200
19. 2018-07-24
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 1999-08-06
    soldstatus $45,000
21. 1980-04-18
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$2,940
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,490
• − Management: −$2,490
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable income: $5,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $7,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+776.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $219,000 WMMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $196,200 WMMLS
• 2018-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1980-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $379 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.