70056 Misty Lake Ct · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$309,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,494 sqft · SingleFamily · 315 Days on market

Built 2023 0.29 ac lot Est $431k · 28% under $9/mo HOA ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful one year old, two story home offers 5 bedrooms along with three bathrooms. The exterior showcases a sleek modern look. Inside, you will enjoy an open concept layout with ample natural light. Homeowners have access to resort style amenities. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Outdoors, the backyard is

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $110; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, basketball court; CDD fee applies ($2,737)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Private road frontage; Asphalt road surface; Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: No built-in appliances included
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $431,462
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75754 Egret Landing Ct	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,511 (+1%)	3mo	$434,000	$173	78
75274 Bridgewater Dr	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,494 (0%)	4mo	$318,990	$128	75
65627 Edgewater Dr	0.40mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,475 (-1%)	1mo	$375,000	$152	70
65704 Edgewater Dr	0.32mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,566 (+3%)	2mo	$442,000	$172	70
77041 Cobblestone Dr	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,356 (-6%)	5mo	$460,000	$195	68
65093 River Glen Pkwy	0.53mi	5/3.0	2,512 (+1%)	7mo	$380,000	$151	68
77170 Cobblestone Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,416 (-3%)	4mo	$365,000	$151	62
65506 River Glen Pkwy	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (-13%)	3mo	$400,000	$185	60
65570 Bowfin Spring Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,132 (-14%)	5mo	$439,900	$206	57
79090 Plummers Creek Dr	0.61mi	5/3.0	2,677 (+7%)	7mo	$472,000	$176	54
75770 Egret Landing Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (-13%)	6mo	$385,000	$178	45
75394 Bridgewater Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,129 (-15%)	5mo	$355,000	$167	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $157,098
• Equity at exit: $278,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $471,121
• Equity at exit: $600,319

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$700 /mo · $8,395/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,111

Max offer price $278,255

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-87	+0% $-174	+5% $-261	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-288	+0% $-174	+5% $-60	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-95	base $-174	+0.5pp $-254	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	24d	1	0.26mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.36mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	5d	1	0.61mi
75215 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2898	$2,900	$1.00	15d	1	0.63mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.65mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	11d	1	0.80mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	3d	1	0.87mi
75047 Brookwood Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	3.0	3300	$3,405	$1.03	5d	1	0.90mi
76195 Deerwood Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,475	$0.90	24d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $309,000 Pending 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $309,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $309,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $309,000 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $309,000 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-04-20
   status Active
8. 2026-04-20
   price $309,000
9. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
10. 2026-02-10
    price $270,000
11. 2026-01-08
    price $299,900
12. 2025-08-02
    status Active
13. 2025-08-02
    price $360,000
14. 2025-05-30
    status Pending
15. 2025-05-13
    price $299,900
16. 2025-04-01
    listed $335,000 Active
17. 2025-02-08
    historical 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This beautiful one year old, two story home offers 5 bedrooms along with three bathrooms. The exterior showcases a sleek modern look. Inside, you will enjoy an open concept layout with ample natural light. Homeowners have access to resort style amenities. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Outdoors, the backyard is

18. 2025-01-07
    price $410,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This beautiful one year old, two story home offers 5 bedrooms along with three bathrooms. The exterior showcases a sleek modern look. Inside, you will enjoy an open concept layout with ample natural light. Homeowners have access to resort style amenities. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Outdoors, the backyard is

19. 2024-10-25
    listed $415,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This beautiful one year old, two story home offers 5 bedrooms along with three bathrooms. The exterior showcases a sleek modern look. Inside, you will enjoy an open concept layout with ample natural light. Homeowners have access to resort style amenities. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Outdoors, the backyard is

20. 2024-10-15
    historical 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    River Glen BEAUTY alert! Don't miss your chance to snag this pristine solar home before it's gone. Situated on a massive pond for endless views, This gem boasts a prime cul-de-sac location, meticulous landscaping, extended driveway, and a picture-perfect front porch. From the moment you step inside, you'll be captivated by this incredible floor plan, high ceilings, upgraded fixtures, and abundant natural light throughout. The versatile front room offers endless possibilities—whether you envision it as a formal dining room, living room, office, kids' playroom, or exercise space, this area is ready to adapt to your needs. The open-concept design continues into the heart of the home: a spacious kitchen featuring an oversized island, stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and recessed lighting. The adjoining dinning space comfortably fits a large table, perfect for family meals.Convenience meets comfort with River Glen and its amenities to include pool, gym, tennis court and park

21. 2024-09-23
    price $414,900 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    River Glen BEAUTY alert! Don't miss your chance to snag this pristine solar home before it's gone. Situated on a massive pond for endless views, This gem boasts a prime cul-de-sac location, meticulous landscaping, extended driveway, and a picture-perfect front porch. From the moment you step inside, you'll be captivated by this incredible floor plan, high ceilings, upgraded fixtures, and abundant natural light throughout. The versatile front room offers endless possibilities—whether you envision it as a formal dining room, living room, office, kids' playroom, or exercise space, this area is ready to adapt to your needs. The open-concept design continues into the heart of the home: a spacious kitchen featuring an oversized island, stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and recessed lighting. The adjoining dinning space comfortably fits a large table, perfect for family meals.Convenience meets comfort with River Glen and its amenities to include pool, gym, tennis court and park

22. 2024-09-12
    price $444,900 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    River Glen BEAUTY alert! Don't miss your chance to snag this pristine solar home before it's gone. Situated on a massive pond for endless views, This gem boasts a prime cul-de-sac location, meticulous landscaping, extended driveway, and a picture-perfect front porch. From the moment you step inside, you'll be captivated by this incredible floor plan, high ceilings, upgraded fixtures, and abundant natural light throughout. The versatile front room offers endless possibilities—whether you envision it as a formal dining room, living room, office, kids' playroom, or exercise space, this area is ready to adapt to your needs. The open-concept design continues into the heart of the home: a spacious kitchen featuring an oversized island, stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and recessed lighting. The adjoining dinning space comfortably fits a large table, perfect for family meals.Convenience meets comfort with River Glen and its amenities to include pool, gym, tennis court and park

23. 2024-08-29
    price $464,000 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    River Glen BEAUTY alert! Don't miss your chance to snag this pristine solar home before it's gone. Situated on a massive pond for endless views, This gem boasts a prime cul-de-sac location, meticulous landscaping, extended driveway, and a picture-perfect front porch. From the moment you step inside, you'll be captivated by this incredible floor plan, high ceilings, upgraded fixtures, and abundant natural light throughout. The versatile front room offers endless possibilities—whether you envision it as a formal dining room, living room, office, kids' playroom, or exercise space, this area is ready to adapt to your needs. The open-concept design continues into the heart of the home: a spacious kitchen featuring an oversized island, stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and recessed lighting. The adjoining dinning space comfortably fits a large table, perfect for family meals.Convenience meets comfort with River Glen and its amenities to include pool, gym, tennis court and park

24. 2024-08-02
    listed $469,000 Active 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    River Glen BEAUTY alert! Don't miss your chance to snag this pristine solar home before it's gone. Situated on a massive pond for endless views, This gem boasts a prime cul-de-sac location, meticulous landscaping, extended driveway, and a picture-perfect front porch. From the moment you step inside, you'll be captivated by this incredible floor plan, high ceilings, upgraded fixtures, and abundant natural light throughout. The versatile front room offers endless possibilities—whether you envision it as a formal dining room, living room, office, kids' playroom, or exercise space, this area is ready to adapt to your needs. The open-concept design continues into the heart of the home: a spacious kitchen featuring an oversized island, stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and recessed lighting. The adjoining dinning space comfortably fits a large table, perfect for family meals.Convenience meets comfort with River Glen and its amenities to include pool, gym, tennis court and park

25. 2024-04-05
    historical
26. 2024-03-21
    listed $405,000 Active
27. 2023-02-24
    soldstatus $356,615 Sold
28. 2023-02-24
    soldstatus $356,615 Closed
29. 2022-12-22
    status Pending
30. 2022-12-22
    status Pending
31. 2022-11-16
    price $359,990
32. 2022-11-16
    status Active
33. 2022-11-16
    price $359,990
34. 2022-11-16
    status Active
35. 2022-08-17
    historical
36. 2022-08-17
    status Pending
37. 2022-08-10
    listed $388,990 Active
38. 2022-08-10
    listed $388,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,395 · $700/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,395 · $700/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$8,395
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$7,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $-359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $309,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $270,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $299,900 realMLS
• 2025-08-02 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $360,000 realMLS
• 2025-05-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $299,900 realMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $335,000 realMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $410,000 realMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $415,000 realMLS
• 2024-10-15 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $414,900 realMLS
• 2024-09-12 Price Changed $444,900 realMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $464,000 realMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $469,000 realMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed $405,000 realMLS
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) $356,615 AINCAR
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) $356,615 realMLS
• 2022-12-22 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-12-22 Pending — AINCAR
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $359,990 realMLS
• 2022-11-16 Relisted — AINCAR
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $359,990 AINCAR
• 2022-11-16 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-08-17 Delisted — AINCAR
• 2022-08-17 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $388,990 AINCAR
• 2022-08-10 Listed $388,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+33.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,395 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.