116 Camp Fire · California City, CA 93505

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1972 4,796 sqft lot $177/sqft · 80% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home on owned land with no HOA fees and no space rent. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home offers 648 sq ft of living space and sits on a lot just under 5,000 sq ft. All public utilities including water, sewer, and electricity. Great opportunity for a cash buyer looking for an affordable purchase, rental potential, or a value-add property. Seller is motivated and must sell quickly. Cash only.

Key facts

• 4,796 sq ft lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 170 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $115k implies a 1543% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.84%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,039
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 79.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Camp Fire Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	660 (+2%)	12mo	$65,000	$98	86
351 Morning glory	0.13mi	2/1.5	696 (+7%)	14mo	$85,000	$122	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $96,751
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.36×
• Total profit: $269,084
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $265/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $852

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-02-02
    price $115,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Manufactured home on owned land with no HOA fees and no space rent. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home offers 648 sq ft of living space and sits on a lot just under 5,000 sq ft. All public utilities including water, sewer, and electricity. Great opportunity for a cash buyer looking for an affordable purchase, rental potential, or a value-add property. Seller is motivated and must sell quickly. Cash only.

17. 2025-12-30
    listed $120,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Manufactured home on owned land with no HOA fees and no space rent. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home offers 648 sq ft of living space and sits on a lot just under 5,000 sq ft. All public utilities including water, sewer, and electricity. Great opportunity for a cash buyer looking for an affordable purchase, rental potential, or a value-add property. Seller is motivated and must sell quickly. Cash only.

18. 1995-09-11
    soldstatus $7,000
19. 1977-03-31
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$609/yr (+$51/mo · 230.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥101°F today · 7 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$265
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$977
• After-tax cash flow: $4,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2200.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 1995-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1977-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $265 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.