17760 W Charter Oak Rd · Surprise, AZ 85388

$513,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 2008 7,782 sqft lot $165/sqft · 11% below area Est $576k · 11% under $102/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of style, space, and Arizona living in this exceptional home in Surprise, AZ's sought-after Sarah Ann Ranch community! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an impressive great room, and a chef-ready kitchen featuring quartz countertops, a large island, stainless appliances, and a walk-in pantry. A versatile main-floor den makes the ideal office, playroom, or creative space. Upstairs, the expansive primary suite feels like a private retreat with a spa-inspired bath and dual walk-in closets. The 4-car tandem garage with cabinetry and epoxy floors is a dream for hobbyists, car lovers, or storage needs--plus you'll love the RV gate and extended parking pad! With smart-home features, updated finishes, and a low-maintenance backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining, this home delivers comfort, convenience, and standout value. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and everything Surprise has to offer! Owner Agent

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Expansive great room

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR DEN
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• POOL PLUMBED BACKYARD
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $513k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $405k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $513k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,306 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $576,340
• List price: $513,000
• Delta: -10.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17753 W Columbine Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	3,110 (0%)	10mo	$562,000	$181	88
17544 W Windrose Dr	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,968 (-5%)	3mo	$460,000	$155	67
17604 W Bloomfield Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,761 (-11%)	9mo	$420,000	$152	64
13103 N 174th Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,899 (-7%)	2mo	$530,000	$183	55
17858 W Dahlia Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	3,551 (+14%)	4mo	$660,000	$186	54
13486 N 177th Dr	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,950 (-5%)	0mo	$515,000	$175	54
17437 W Montpelier St	0.50mi	4/4.0	3,479 (+12%)	6mo	$1,595,000	$458	48
17455 W San Marcos St	0.52mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,479 (+12%)	8mo	$2,156,200	$620	42
17657 W Andora St	0.69mi	4/2.5	3,551 (+14%)	1mo	$580,000	$163	41
13522 N 176th Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,761 (-11%)	1mo	$520,000	$188	39
17769 W Alexandria Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	3,524 (+13%)	9mo	$540,000	$153	36
11300 N Williamsburg Ave	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,656 (-15%)	9mo	$1,075,000	$405	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-56,738
• Equity at exit: $156,293

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-61,887
• Equity at exit: $193,829

Cash invested: $143,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,690
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$102
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,027

Max offer price $405,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,250
• Closing costs: $15,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13103 N 174th Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	2.5	2899	$3,500	$1.21	43d	1	0.62mi
17572 W Andora St Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.5	3826	$6,400	$1.67	43d	1	0.67mi
17840 W Andora St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2261	$2,195	$0.97	5d	1	0.68mi
17775 W Eugene Ter Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2104	$2,279	$1.08	5d	1	0.74mi
13559 N 174th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,200	$1.02	20d	1	0.85mi
18351 W Mercer Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,495	$1.15	21d	1	1.19mi
17762 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3318	$3,530	$1.06	24d	1	1.19mi
17856 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3336	$3,200	$0.96	24d	1	1.22mi
18847 W Desert Hills Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2188	$2,449	$1.12	43d	1	1.40mi
16668 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,150	$0.94	5d	1	1.45mi
18787 W Yucatan Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2864	$2,795	$0.98	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $102 · $1,224/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $513,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $513,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $513,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $513,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $513,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $513,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $513,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $513,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-03-25
   price $513,000 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of style, space, and Arizona living in this exceptional home in Surprise, AZ's sought-after Sarah Ann Ranch community! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an impressive great room, and a chef-ready kitchen featuring quartz countertops, a large island, stainless appliances, and a walk-in pantry. A versatile main-floor den makes the ideal office, playroom, or creative space. Upstairs, the expansive primary suite feels like a private retreat with a spa-inspired bath and dual walk-in closets. The 4-car tandem garage with cabinetry and epoxy floors is a dream for hobbyists, car lovers, or storage needs--plus you'll love the RV gate and extended parking pad! With smart-home features, updated finishes, and a low-maintenance backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining, this home delivers comfort, convenience, and standout value. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and everything Surprise has to offer! Owner Agent

10. 2026-02-09
    price $524,760 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style, space, and Arizona living in this exceptional home in Surprise, AZ's sought-after Sarah Ann Ranch community! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an impressive great room, and a chef-ready kitchen featuring quartz countertops, a large island, stainless appliances, and a walk-in pantry. A versatile main-floor den makes the ideal office, playroom, or creative space. Upstairs, the expansive primary suite feels like a private retreat with a spa-inspired bath and dual walk-in closets. The 4-car tandem garage with cabinetry and epoxy floors is a dream for hobbyists, car lovers, or storage needs--plus you'll love the RV gate and extended parking pad! With smart-home features, updated finishes, and a low-maintenance backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining, this home delivers comfort, convenience, and standout value. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and everything Surprise has to offer! Owner Agent

11. 2026-01-08
    listed $527,760 Active 960-char remark

    Show marketing remark (960 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of style, space, and Arizona living in this exceptional home in Surprise, AZ's sought-after Sarah Ann Ranch community! Step inside to soaring ceilings, an impressive great room, and a chef-ready kitchen featuring quartz countertops, a large island, stainless appliances, and a walk-in pantry. A versatile main-floor den makes the ideal office, playroom, or creative space. Upstairs, the expansive primary suite feels like a private retreat with a spa-inspired bath and dual walk-in closets. The 4-car tandem garage with cabinetry and epoxy floors is a dream for hobbyists, car lovers, or storage needs--plus you'll love the RV gate and extended parking pad! With smart-home features, updated finishes, and a low-maintenance backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining, this home delivers comfort, convenience, and standout value. Close to parks, schools, shopping, and everything Surprise has to offer! Owner Agent

12. 2022-08-10
    historical
13. 2022-07-18
    listed $560,000 Active
14. 2015-03-15
    historical
15. 2015-03-13
    listed $248,900 Active
16. 2010-06-18
    soldstatus $184,847 Closed
17. 2010-05-19
    status Pending
18. 2010-04-22
    price $184,757
19. 2009-12-24
    listed $190,112 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,286/yr (+$107/mo · 61.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,736
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$2,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,123
• − Management: −$3,123
• − HOA: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$14,924
• Taxable loss: −$16,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+169.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $513,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $524,760 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $527,760 ARMLS
• 2022-08-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listed $560,000 ARMLS
• 2015-03-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-03-13 Listed $248,900 ARMLS
• 2010-06-18 Sold (MLS) $184,847 ARMLS
• 2010-05-19 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-04-22 Price Changed $184,757 ARMLS
• 2009-12-24 Listed $190,112 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,100 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.