409 S Hill St · Marion, IL 62959-2746

$84,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Built 1940 Poor condition 0.50 ac lot $22/sqft · 59% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming white church is a one-of-a-kind opportunity, featuring a 4,000 sq ft interior, filled with character and endless potential. Whether you envision it as a unique residence, a vibrant community center, or a stunning event venue, this property offers endless possibilities. Situated within the TIF II district, the property may be eligible for tax incentives, making it a smart investment. The roof is just a few years old, ensuring durability and peace of mind. Enjoy the convenience of a pull-through parking lot with main road access and space for at least 20 vehicles including handicap parking. There is also a yard on the north side of the parking lot. A handicap ramp on the east si

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 183 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.0% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#896 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Marion CUSD 2 (urban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #317 of 620 in IL (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.28%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,162
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -59.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 W Goodall St	0.61mi	3/3.0 (+1)	3,610 (-6%)	10mo	$279,900	$78	42
1506 W Malden St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	3,446 (-10%)	23mo	$192,000	$56	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $35,828
• Equity at exit: $38,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $91,731
• Equity at exit: $58,832

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62959-2746

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $431	+0% $402	+5% $372	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $352	+0% $402	+5% $451	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $423	base $402	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,900 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $84,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    status Active
19. 2026-03-24
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
20. 2026-01-06
    historical
21. 2025-08-20
    listed Active
22. 2025-07-14
    status Active
23. 2025-07-14
    historical
24. 2025-07-14
    historical
25. 2025-06-13
    historical Under Contract
26. 2025-05-01
    price
27. 2024-08-06
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$885
• After-tax cash flow: $3,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior walls — Severe weathering and lack of maintenance.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major bathrooms — No bathrooms are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major kitchen — No kitchen is visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major systems — No systems are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Minor roof — The roof is described as new and durable.
• Major flooring — No flooring is visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior paint and landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances the property's visual appeal.
• Both interior paint and updates — Enhances the property's interior and makes it more attractive for potential buyers or renters.
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Improves functionality and aesthetic appeal, making the property more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both roof inspection and maintenance — Ensures durability and peace of mind for potential buyers or renters.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the property's visual appeal and makes it more attractive for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior walls · Severe weathering and lack of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No bathrooms are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No kitchen is visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No systems are visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof is described as new and durable.	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · No flooring is visible in the photos, but the exterior suggests poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$105,500–353,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior paint and landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances the property's visual appeal. ↑
• Both interior paint and updates — Enhances the property's interior and makes it more attractive for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Improves functionality and aesthetic appeal, making the property more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both roof inspection and maintenance — Ensures durability and peace of mind for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the property's visual appeal and makes it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion CUSD 2
• NCES district ID: 1724600
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,221
• Composite: 22.07/100
• National rank: #8189
• State rank: #317 of 620 in IL

Livability — Marion

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #17434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, IL

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B