9901 Karen Ave · California City, CA 93505

$280,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,843 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2003 10,454 sqft lot Est $358k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing North Side California City Custom Home featuring 1843 sq. ft. ,4 bedrooms , 3 bathrooms, open floor plan with huge kitchen, oak cabinetry, granite countertops, breakfast bar, large dining, fireplace in living room, custom drywall features, ceiling fans, spacious bedrooms, 2 master suites with full bathrooms, large laundry room, oversized finished garage, block wall and on natural gas.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Sewer available
• Home design: Contemporary style; Single-story
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built on Tract 2227; R1 zoning; Paved streets
• Exterior features: Front lawn; Solar panels (leased)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Laundry area in unit
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-129/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,252/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $280k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,196 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,542
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21601 Adler	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+1%)	1mo	$360,000	$194	80
9801 Evelyn Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,923 (+4%)	4mo	$325,000	$169	80
9925 Irene Ave	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (-5%)	0mo	$280,000	$160	78
9709 Susan Ave	0.21mi	4/3.5	1,994 (+8%)	3mo	$390,000	$196	72
9701 Susan Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,753 (-5%)	3mo	$345,000	$197	70
10121 Margery Ave	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,035 (+10%)	0mo	$370,000	$182	70
9840 Margery Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-12%)	2mo	$275,000	$169	68
21851 101st St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+6%)	4mo	$209,000	$107	67
9629 Mendiburu Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+3%)	3mo	$410,000	$216	64
9644 Raymond Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-7%)	4mo	$360,000	$209	60
21631 Sheridan Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,792 (-3%)	4mo	$389,000	$217	56
9418 Karen Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-12%)	3mo	$258,000	$159	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $157,443
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $476,815
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,457/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $278,103

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10193 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	14d	1	0.37mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	23d	1	0.51mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	0.58mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	3d	1	0.59mi
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	3d	1	0.85mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	23d	1	1.08mi
21398 Baldwin Ln California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	2d	1	1.12mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	3d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $280,000
3. 2026-03-31
   price $285,000
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $290,000 Active
5. 2016-11-22
   soldstatus $162,000 Closed 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Amazing North Side California City Custom Home featuring 1843 sq. ft. ,4 bedrooms , 3 bathrooms, open floor plan with huge kitchen, oak cabinetry, granite countertops, breakfast bar, large dining, fireplace in living room, custom drywall features, ceiling fans, spacious bedrooms, 2 master suites with full bathrooms, large laundry room, oversized finished garage, block wall and on natural gas.

6. 2016-11-22
   soldstatus $162,000

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Amazing North Side California City Custom Home featuring 1843 sq. ft. ,4 bedrooms , 3 bathrooms, open floor plan with huge kitchen, oak cabinetry, granite countertops, breakfast bar, large dining, fireplace in living room, custom drywall features, ceiling fans, spacious bedrooms, 2 master suites with full bathrooms, large laundry room, oversized finished garage, block wall and on natural gas.

7. 2016-09-29
   status Pending 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Amazing North Side California City Custom Home featuring 1843 sq. ft. ,4 bedrooms , 3 bathrooms, open floor plan with huge kitchen, oak cabinetry, granite countertops, breakfast bar, large dining, fireplace in living room, custom drywall features, ceiling fans, spacious bedrooms, 2 master suites with full bathrooms, large laundry room, oversized finished garage, block wall and on natural gas.

8. 2016-07-21
   listed $169,900 Active 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Amazing North Side California City Custom Home featuring 1843 sq. ft. ,4 bedrooms , 3 bathrooms, open floor plan with huge kitchen, oak cabinetry, granite countertops, breakfast bar, large dining, fireplace in living room, custom drywall features, ceiling fans, spacious bedrooms, 2 master suites with full bathrooms, large laundry room, oversized finished garage, block wall and on natural gas.

9. 2016-04-11
   soldstatus $121,000 Closed 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice home north of Loop Blvd, close to the golf course, big kitchen with granite counter tops, double pane windows, brick fireplace in living room. tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms, carpet in the living rooma and bedrooms, central air and heat.

10. 2016-04-08
    soldstatus $121,000
11. 2016-03-10
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Very nice home north of Loop Blvd, close to the golf course, big kitchen with granite counter tops, double pane windows, brick fireplace in living room. tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms, carpet in the living rooma and bedrooms, central air and heat.

12. 2015-11-19
    price $125,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Very nice home north of Loop Blvd, close to the golf course, big kitchen with granite counter tops, double pane windows, brick fireplace in living room. tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms, carpet in the living rooma and bedrooms, central air and heat.

13. 2015-09-30
    listed $115,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Very nice home north of Loop Blvd, close to the golf course, big kitchen with granite counter tops, double pane windows, brick fireplace in living room. tile floors in kitchen and bathrooms, carpet in the living rooma and bedrooms, central air and heat.

14. 2015-05-20
    historical
15. 2015-05-19
    historical
16. 2015-01-29
    price $102,500
17. 2014-12-22
    listed $102,500
18. 2014-12-20
    listed $115,500 Active
19. 2014-12-17
    historical
20. 2014-12-11
    listed $76,500 Active
21. 2005-05-27
    soldstatus $197,000
22. 2005-04-25
    soldstatus $197,000
23. 2005-03-16
    listed $199,000
24. 1999-04-08
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,457
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $1,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+3900.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $280,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $285,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $290,000 AVMLS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-22 Sold (MLS) $162,000 AVMLS
• 2016-09-29 Pending — AVMLS
• 2016-07-21 Listed $169,900 AVMLS
• 2016-04-11 Sold (MLS) $121,000 AVMLS
• 2016-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-10 Pending — AVMLS
• 2015-11-19 Price Changed $125,000 AVMLS
• 2015-09-30 Listed $115,000 AVMLS
• 2015-05-20 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-05-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-01-29 Price Changed $102,500 CRMLS
• 2014-12-22 Listed $102,500 AVMLS
• 2014-12-20 Listed $115,500 CRMLS
• 2014-12-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-12-11 Listed $76,500 CRMLS
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $197,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-25 Sold (MLS) $197,000 CRMLS
• 2005-03-16 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 1999-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,457 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.