11928 Hickory Ln · Tavares, FL 32778

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 232 Days on market

Built 1968 12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Furnished two bedroom home. Large Living room and family room. Newer floors, painted inside and out. Has a large storage building with electric and water in it in the back yard off the patio. Washer dryer inside. The home is well cared for. Neat as a pin. . Just need to move in and enjoy it. The community has a pool and a lot of activities. Also first came on a boat dock. Close to shopping and great restaurants.

Key facts

• Open space kitchen
• Own your lot
• Two closets

Tags

• OWN YOUR LOT
• NEW RUBBER ROOF
• FLORIDA ROOM
• OPEN SPACE KITCHEN
• NEWLY REMODELED
• TWO CLOSETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house; Living area approximately 1,150
• Exterior features: Large lot approximately 525,075 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.77%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-566
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $29,341
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 232 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus $122,000
15. 2025-10-29
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 2022-12-22
    soldstatus $93,500
17. 2016-02-29
    soldstatus $39,500 Sold 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Furnished two bedroom home. Large Living room and family room. Newer floors, painted inside and out. Has a large storage building with electric and water in it in the back yard off the patio. Washer dryer inside. The home is well cared for. Neat as a pin. . Just need to move in and enjoy it. The community has a pool and a lot of activities. Also first came on a boat dock. Close to shopping and great restaurants.

18. 2016-02-11
    status Pending 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Furnished two bedroom home. Large Living room and family room. Newer floors, painted inside and out. Has a large storage building with electric and water in it in the back yard off the patio. Washer dryer inside. The home is well cared for. Neat as a pin. . Just need to move in and enjoy it. The community has a pool and a lot of activities. Also first came on a boat dock. Close to shopping and great restaurants.

19. 2016-02-03
    listed $39,900 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Furnished two bedroom home. Large Living room and family room. Newer floors, painted inside and out. Has a large storage building with electric and water in it in the back yard off the patio. Washer dryer inside. The home is well cared for. Neat as a pin. . Just need to move in and enjoy it. The community has a pool and a lot of activities. Also first came on a boat dock. Close to shopping and great restaurants.

20. 2012-03-23
    soldstatus $25,000 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    A very comfortable home. Many updates. Tile in living room, woof floring in family room and hallway. New toilet. Roof over. The ac has been serviced . partialy furnished. This is a great snow bird special. Not to expensive and very neat. call on this one.

21. 2010-06-26
    listed $29,900 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    A very comfortable home. Many updates. Tile in living room, woof floring in family room and hallway. New toilet. Roof over. The ac has been serviced . partialy furnished. This is a great snow bird special. Not to expensive and very neat. call on this one.

22. 2004-02-25
    soldstatus $39,000
23. 1995-05-31
    soldstatus $29,000
24. 1986-04-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+306.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-29 Listed $125,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2022-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-29 Sold (MLS) $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-03 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-23 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-26 Listed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1986-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,688 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.