343 Oak Ave · Flanders, NY 11901

$739,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2004 0.34 ac lot $444/sqft · at area comps Est $762k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Victorian Located In Park Like Setting. Boasts Large 2 Car Detached Garage In Addition To 1 Car. 3 Brs, 2 Bth And Large Master Suite With Full Bath And Walk In Closet, Wood Floors, Living Room With Wood Burning Fireplace, Large Din Rm Located Off Spacious Kitchen. 1/2 Bath On Main Floor. This Is A Bank Owned Property All Offers Are Subject To Bank Approval

Key facts

• Private backyard
• In-ground sprinklers
• French drain

Tags

• IMMEDIATE ACCESS TO HIKING
• OVERSIZED 3-CAR GARAGE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• IN-GROUND SPRINKLERS
• FRENCH DRAIN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Detached parking; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Full basement; Crawl attic; 8 total rooms; Wood-frame construction interior details
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $739k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($111k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $739k).
• Recommended offer: $728k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Avenue School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 578 students, 50% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $207k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $277k; list at $739k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $727,915 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.86%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $762,100
• List price: $739,000
• Delta: -3.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Brookhaven Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+8%)	17mo	$635,000	$353	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $471,732
• Equity at exit: $110,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $1,172,416
• Equity at exit: $63,895

Cash invested: $206,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,875
• Tax from tax record: −$497 /mo · $5,960/yr
• Insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,713
• Net cashflow: $9,287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,924

Max offer price $739,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,705	-5% $9,496	+0% $9,287	+5% $9,078	+10% $8,868
Rent	-10% $7,890	-5% $8,588	+0% $9,287	+5% $9,985	+10% $10,683
Rate	-1.0pp $9,659	-0.5pp $9,475	base $9,287	+0.5pp $9,095	+1.0pp $8,900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $184,750
• Closing costs: $22,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Maple Ave S Riverhead, NY	3.0	3.0	1710	$11,000	$6.43	25d	1	0.22mi
588 Pleasure Dr Riverhead, NY	4.0	4.0	2225	$60,000	$26.97	25d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-28
   listed $739,000 Active 1305-char remark
2. 2015-11-02
   soldstatus $277,143 Closed 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Beautiful Victorian Located In Park Like Setting. Boasts Large 2 Car Detached Garage In Addition To 1 Car. 3 Brs, 2 Bth And Large Master Suite With Full Bath And Walk In Closet, Wood Floors, Living Room With Wood Burning Fireplace, Large Din Rm Located Off Spacious Kitchen. 1/2 Bath On Main Floor. This Is A Bank Owned Property All Offers Are Subject To Bank Approval, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

3. 2015-11-02
   soldstatus $277,143

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Beautiful Victorian Located In Park Like Setting. Boasts Large 2 Car Detached Garage In Addition To 1 Car. 3 Brs, 2 Bth And Large Master Suite With Full Bath And Walk In Closet, Wood Floors, Living Room With Wood Burning Fireplace, Large Din Rm Located Off Spacious Kitchen. 1/2 Bath On Main Floor. This Is A Bank Owned Property All Offers Are Subject To Bank Approval, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

4. 2015-06-05
   status Under Contract 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   Beautiful Victorian Located In Park Like Setting. Boasts Large 2 Car Detached Garage In Addition To 1 Car. 3 Brs, 2 Bth And Large Master Suite With Full Bath And Walk In Closet, Wood Floors, Living Room With Wood Burning Fireplace, Large Din Rm Located Off Spacious Kitchen. 1/2 Bath On Main Floor. This Is A Bank Owned Property All Offers Are Subject To Bank Approval

5. 2015-05-22
   listed $219,100 New 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Beautiful Victorian Located In Park Like Setting. Boasts Large 2 Car Detached Garage In Addition To 1 Car. 3 Brs, 2 Bth And Large Master Suite With Full Bath And Walk In Closet, Wood Floors, Living Room With Wood Burning Fireplace, Large Din Rm Located Off Spacious Kitchen. 1/2 Bath On Main Floor. This Is A Bank Owned Property All Offers Are Subject To Bank Approval, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

6. 2015-05-22
   listed $219,100

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Beautiful Victorian Located In Park Like Setting. Boasts Large 2 Car Detached Garage In Addition To 1 Car. 3 Brs, 2 Bth And Large Master Suite With Full Bath And Walk In Closet, Wood Floors, Living Room With Wood Burning Fireplace, Large Din Rm Located Off Spacious Kitchen. 1/2 Bath On Main Floor. This Is A Bank Owned Property All Offers Are Subject To Bank Approval, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

7. 2014-12-31
   historical
8. 2014-06-14
   listed $355,000
9. 2014-05-19
   historical
10. 2013-09-19
    listed $369,995
11. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus $380,000
12. 2002-03-21
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,960 · $497/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,225 · $769/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,264/yr (+$272/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $212,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,395
• − Property taxes: −$5,960
• − Insurance: −$3,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,972
• − Management: −$16,972
• − Depreciation: −$21,498
• Taxable income: $105,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,358
• After-tax cash flow: $86,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flanders

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #22674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flanders, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2856.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $739,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-02 Sold (MLS) $277,143 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-02 Sold (MLS) $277,143 MLSLI
• 2015-06-05 Pending — MLSLI
• 2015-05-22 Listed $219,100 MLSLI
• 2015-05-22 Listed $219,100 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Listed $355,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-19 Listed $369,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,960 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.