1201 Lombard Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Townhouse · 60 Days on market

Built 2020 1,750 sqft lot $208/sqft · 23% above area Est $263k · 23% over ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in the charming community of Barrio Embarcadero at Tubac. This beautifully maintained corner unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low maintenance living. Ideal for seasonal residents or those ready to enjoy a more relaxed pace year round. Built in 2020 and lightly lived in, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home feels practically brand new. With 1,563 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, you'll appreciate the bright, airy feel created by abundant natural light and an open-concept living and dining area. A cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm perfect for cool desert evenings. The spacious kitchen is both stylish and functional, featuring granite countertops, a large island with bar seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and soft-close cabinetry. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with a large walk-in closet, dual vanities, ample linen storage, and your own exterior balcony perfect for enjoying Arizona's beautiful sunrises and sunsets. The HOA enhances your lifestyle with access to a pool, hot tub, and recreational room great for socializing or unwinding. Conveniently located just minutes from local dining, golf course, pickleball courts, and everyday essentials, this home offers the best of both relaxation and accessibility. Whether you're seeking a seasonal getaway or a full time residence, this is truly a lock and leave property designed for comfort and ease.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Spacious kitchen
• Large island

Tags

• CORNER UNIT TOWNHOME
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $984 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-461 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $249k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.98%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,446
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: 23.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Post Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-5%)	1mo	$280,000	$188	86
1111 Lombard Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+3%)	10mo	$285,000	$177	86
1611 Golden Gate Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+0%)	14mo	$340,000	$218	82
901 Lombard Way	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-7%)	3mo	$325,000	$224	81
206 Post Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,480 (-5%)	24mo	$315,000	$213	65
204 Post Way	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,354 (-13%)	6mo	$280,000	$207	61
30 Circulo Diego Rivera	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+11%)	1mo	$275,000	$158	51
130 Calle Barrio De Tubac	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (-6%)	13mo	$425,000	$291	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $50,971
• Equity at exit: $92,071

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $165,101
• Equity at exit: $108,855

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $984

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,610

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,168	-5% $1,076	+0% $984	+5% $892	+10% $800
Rent	-10% $680	-5% $832	+0% $984	+5% $1,137	+10% $1,289
Rate	-1.0pp $1,148	-0.5pp $1,067	base $984	+0.5pp $900	+1.0pp $814

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $325,000 Active 1578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1578 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in the charming community of Barrio Embarcadero at Tubac. This beautifully maintained corner unit townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low maintenance living. Ideal for seasonal residents or those ready to enjoy a more relaxed pace year round. Built in 2020 and lightly lived in, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home feels practically brand new. With 1,563 square feet of thoughtfully designed space, you'll appreciate the bright, airy feel created by abundant natural light and an open-concept living and dining area. A cozy gas fireplace adds warmth and charm perfect for cool desert evenings. The spacious kitchen is both stylish and functional, featuring granite countertops, a large island with bar seating, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and soft-close cabinetry. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat, complete with a large walk-in closet, dual vanities, ample linen storage, and your own exterior balcony perfect for enjoying Arizona's beautiful sunrises and sunsets. The HOA enhances your lifestyle with access to a pool, hot tub, and recreational room great for socializing or unwinding. Conveniently located just minutes from local dining, golf course, pickleball courts, and everyday essentials, this home offers the best of both relaxation and accessibility. Whether you're seeking a seasonal getaway or a full time residence, this is truly a lock and leave property designed for comfort and ease.

17. 2021-04-28
    soldstatus $249,000 Closed 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom townhomes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a skydeck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

18. 2021-04-28
    soldstatus $249,000

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom townhomes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a skydeck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

19. 2021-03-18
    historical Active Contingent 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom townhomes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a skydeck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

20. 2021-03-03
    price $249,000 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom townhomes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a skydeck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

21. 2020-05-15
    listed $239,000 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom townhomes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a skydeck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

22. 2009-11-09
    soldstatus $500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,702
• − Management: −$3,702
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $6,918
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $10,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $249,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-28 Sold (MLS) $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-03-18 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-03-03 Price Changed $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-15 Listed $239,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,666 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.