4225 Otis Dr · Fort McKinley, OH 45416

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1956 0.30 ac lot Est $110k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Ranch style home. .3Bedrooms 1Bath. Great Investment, Or you can make this your home of Choice.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Prime location
• Generous lot size

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• PRIME LOCATION
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.3 acre (75 x 111)
• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water available; Water service available
• Home design: Single-story; Residential zoning; Brick and frame construction
• Construction: Brick and frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (approx. 10 x 10 and 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Vinyl windows; Laminate countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4247 Otis Dr	0.04mi	3/1.0	984 (+2%)	2mo	$120,000	$122	92
4370 Saylor St	0.22mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	3mo	$86,750	$90	87
4081 Lobata Pl	0.20mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	5mo	$93,000	$97	86
4431 Wolf Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+5%)	5mo	$112,900	$112	73
4293 Thompson Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$58,850	$56	73
3656 Detroit Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	967 (+1%)	3mo	$102,000	$105	70
4333 Marlowe St	0.37mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$149	69
3539 Detroit Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,023 (+7%)	5mo	$102,000	$100	59
4342 Nevada Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	997 (+4%)	5mo	$115,000	$115	56
3678 Wilmore St	0.59mi	3/1.5	864 (-10%)	3mo	$131,900	$153	52
3538 Pittsburg Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	3mo	$109,900	$127	49
4288 Redonda Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	864 (-10%)	4mo	$125,000	$145	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $5,553
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $30,802
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45416

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,397/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $366	-5% $341	+0% $316	+5% $290	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $269	+0% $316	+5% $363	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $338	base $316	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	3d	1	0.20mi
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	3d	1	0.20mi
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	3d	1	0.28mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	0.32mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	44d	1	0.48mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	4d	1	0.55mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	44d	1	0.72mi
4365 Parkway Dr Trotwood, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	0.80mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	3d	1	1.05mi
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	44d	1	1.07mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,200	$1.08	3d	1	1.09mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	22d	1	1.09mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	24d	1	1.16mi
5610 N Main St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	3d	1	1.19mi
4303 Drowfield Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	15d	1	1.32mi
4278 Catalpa Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	44d	1	1.36mi
62 W Nottingham Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	765	$750	$0.98	24d	1	1.42mi
132 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,130	$1.26	3d	1	1.44mi
148 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.45mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	22d	1	1.47mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	19d	1	1.47mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	3d	1	1.47mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	22d	1	1.47mi
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	24d	1	1.48mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,397 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,400 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$3/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,397
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $3,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 19,754
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,640
• Household income: $46,174
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+156.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $89,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,157,500 Public Records
• 2021-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-06 Sold (MLS) $54,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-10-06 Sold (MLS) $54,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-09-25 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2021-09-17 Listed $60,000 Dayton MLS
• 2006-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,397 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.