Napali Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$330,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,649 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home features a single-level owner's suite, offering a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A secondary bedroom is located near the front of the home, while an open-concept floorplan encourages seamless indoor-outdoor living with access to an inviting covered porch. On the second level, a bonus room provides a versatile shared living area easily accessible from three additional secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Entertainment spots
• Swimming pool
• Splash park

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• SPLASH PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• PARK
• VALLEY RANCH TOWN CENTER
• ENTERTAINMENT SPOTS

🏗️ New construction. The $330,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $382,911.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,396 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.63%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,911
• List price: $330,990
• Delta: -13.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28818 Mount Bonnell Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,650 (0%)	1mo	$399,425	$151	83
28821 Chalk Ridge Ln	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,789 (+5%)	0mo	$349,995	$125	83
205 Yellow Rosewood Ln	0.03mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,782 (+5%)	2mo	$464,218	$167	82
28810 Mount Bonnell Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,613 (-1%)	1mo	$379,900	$145	81
453 Pace Bend Ct	0.12mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,548 (-4%)	2mo	$369,000	$145	80
506 Boot Springs Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,548 (-4%)	2mo	$300,000	$118	76
446 Hillview Nature Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,366 (-11%)	4mo	$379,565	$160	72
417 Emory Peak Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,401 (-9%)	3mo	$364,990	$152	71
28807 Bobcat Run Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,458 (-7%)	2mo	$319,990	$130	70
28613 Zilker Dr	0.39mi	5/4.0	2,800 (+6%)	1mo	$434,424	$155	67
224 Violet Crown Ln	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (-15%)	0mo	$319,990	$141	59
311 Violet Crown Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (-15%)	4mo	$309,990	$137	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-117,587
• Equity at exit: $57,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-190,620
• Equity at exit: $33,107

Cash invested: $107,215 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 82 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $373,990 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,008
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$479 /mo · $5,744/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,350

Max offer price $271,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-506	-5% $-638	+0% $-771	+5% $-903	+10% $-1,035
Rent	-10% $-958	-5% $-865	+0% $-771	+5% $-677	+10% $-583
Rate	-1.0pp $-578	-0.5pp $-673	base $-771	+0.5pp $-870	+1.0pp $-971

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,728
• Closing costs: $11,487
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	71d	1	0.76mi
139 Road 51026 Cleveland, TX	5.0	2.5	3120	$2,450	$0.79	69d	1	0.81mi
1176 Road 5102 Cleveland, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	93d	1	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 28802 Hillview Nature Dr, New Caney, TX 77357Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $331,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Napali)Single-family residence (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 plans (new construction)
• Exterior features: Property named Napali PlanLiving area approximately 2,649

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (appliance details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $330,990 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $330,990 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $330,990 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $330,990 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $330,990 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $330,990 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $335,990 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $335,990 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $340,990 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $340,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $340,990 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $340,990 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $340,990 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $340,990 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $340,990 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $340,990 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $340,990 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $340,990 Active 89 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $350,990 Active 88 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $350,990 Active 87 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $350,990 Active 86 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $350,990 Active 85 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $355,990 Active 83 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $355,990 Active 81 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,990 Active 80 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,990 Active 79 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $355,990 Active 78 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $355,990 Active 77 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $355,990 Active 76 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $355,990 Active 75 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $355,990 Active 74 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $355,990 Active 73 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $355,990 Active 72 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $355,990 Active 71 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $355,990 Active 70 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $355,990 Active 68 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $355,990 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $355,990 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $355,990 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    price $355,990 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $331,990 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $331,990 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $331,990 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $331,990 Active 57 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $331,990 Active 53 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $331,990 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $331,990 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $331,990 Active 48 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $331,990 Active 47 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $331,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,449
• − Property taxes: −$5,744
• − Insurance: −$1,915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − Depreciation: −$11,139
• Taxable loss: −$16,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,916
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It offers a serene retreat and seamless indoor-outdoor living, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Huffman Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Hargrave H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 28802 Hillview Nature Dr, New Caney, TX 77357Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $331,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Napali)Single-family residence (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 plans (new construction)
• Exterior features: Property named Napali PlanLiving area approximately 2,649

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (appliance details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area