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2036 Aldrich Mews
D- Composite 36.97
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +9.4/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.4/30.0
  • Schools +5.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.4/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.2/10.0
  • DSCR +1.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.3/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$339,900

2036 Aldrich Mews · Celina, TX 75009
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,888 sqft · Townhouse · 72 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,483 sqft lot 2-car garage $180/sqft · at area comps Est $355k · at est. $275/mo HOA · 10% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MLS# 21292969 - Built by Grenadier Investments - Ready Now! ~ * * Sun's Out, Savings On - Discover Better Savings with Improved Pricing + 3.99% * Interest Rate Buydown Opportunities OR up to $20K in Incentives on all Move-In Ready Homes (See Sales Counselor for details) * * Experience contemporary living in this stunning new 3-bedroom, 3-bath townhouse in the desirable Ten Mile Creek community, offering 1,888 SF and estimated completion on June 26, 2026. Designed with sophisticated modern finishes throughout, this home features sleek black hardware, an upgraded lighting package with elegant gold accents, luxury vinyl plank flooring in main living areas, and plush carpet in bedrooms.

Key facts

  • Large island
  • Double vanities
  • $275 HOA

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT EAT-IN KITCHENLARGE ISLANDPRIVATE PRIMARY SUITEDOUBLE VANITIESGENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSETPROFESSIONAL LANDSCAPING

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (18.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (18.4% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $277k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: O'Dell El (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 826 students, 15% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3881 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $277,267 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.82%
Cap rate
4.76%
Cash-on-cash
-5.46%
DSCR
0.76
GRM
10.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$354,990
List price
$339,900
Delta
-4.25%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
9 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
2036 Aldrich Mews 0.00mi 3/2.5 1,888 (0%) 1mo $339,900 $180 99
2013 Aldrich Mews 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,867 (-1%) 0mo $349,900 $187 96
2001 Aldrich Mews 0.05mi 3/2.5 1,865 (-1%) 1mo $369,900 $198 95
2009 Aldrich Mews 0.04mi 3/2.5 1,888 (0%) 5mo $354,990 $188 94
2016 Aldrich Mews 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,865 (-1%) 4mo $369,990 $198 94
2025 Aldrich Mews 0.02mi 3/2.5 1,888 (0%) 8mo $340,000 $180 92
2005 Aldrich Mews 0.04mi 3/2.5 1,852 (-2%) 4mo $335,900 $181 92
2000 Aldrich Mews 0.04mi 3/2.5 1,867 (-1%) 11mo $389,000 $208 87
2021 Aldrich Mews 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,852 (-2%) 15mo $399,000 $215 83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.4%
Equity multiple
0.05×
Total profit
$-90,564
Equity at exit
$50,680
10-year hold
IRR
-52.0%
Equity multiple
-0.52×
Total profit
$-144,916
Equity at exit
$29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
13 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply
9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$339,900 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market
73 d
This list price
15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

Home prices YoY
-23.1%
Rents YoY
-4.6%
Active inventory
3881
Price-to-rent
10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,774 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,782
Tax est. 1.5%
$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
Insurance
$142
HOA
$275
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$582
Net cashflow
$-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,321
Max offer price $277,267
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-198 -5% $-315 +0% $-433 +5% $-550 +10% $-668
Rent -10% $-652 -5% $-542 +0% $-433 +5% $-323 +10% $-214
Rate -1.0pp $-262 -0.5pp $-346 base $-433 +0.5pp $-521 +1.0pp $-611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$84,975
Closing costs
$10,197
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 23 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2386 $2,895 $1.21 114d 1 0.73mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX 3.0 2.0 2024 $3,050 $1.51 50d 1 0.73mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1964 $2,500 $1.27 47d 1 0.75mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX 1.0–4.0 1.0–3.0 1385 $2,495 $1.80 0d 25 0.75mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2545 $5,800 $2.28 68d 1 0.81mi
2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX 4.0 3.0 2102 $3,445 $1.64 139d 1 0.85mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 1930 $2,395 $1.24 20d 1 0.93mi
1364 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1884 $2,695 $1.43 40d 1 0.94mi
1356 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1888 $2,500 $1.32 139d 1 0.95mi
1325 Choate Pkwy Celina, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1000 $2,158 $2.16 0d 51 0.97mi
1328 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1885 $2,500 $1.33 74d 1 0.98mi
1363 Whipsaw Trl Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 1888 $2,550 $1.35 20d 1 0.98mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2395 $3,500 $1.46 139d 1 1.02mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2309 $3,500 $1.52 139d 1 1.09mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2359 $3,650 $1.55 3d 1 1.15mi
2720 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX 4.0 2.0 1868 $2,550 $1.37 19d 1 1.18mi
2600 Kinship Pkwy Celina, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1067 $2,051 $1.92 0d 31 1.20mi
3008 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX 4.0 3.0 2503 $2,595 $1.04 78d 1 1.30mi
1101 Lawndale St Celina, TX 3.0 2.0 1762 $2,300 $1.31 45d 1 1.38mi
912 Slate Ln Celina, TX 4.0 2.0 1879 $2,690 $1.43 139d 1 1.39mi
905 Berry St Celina, TX 4.0 2.0 2023 $2,350 $1.16 37d 1 1.43mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX 3.0 2.5 2331 $3,300 $1.42 83d 1 1.45mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX 4.0 2.5 2368 $3,000 $1.27 120d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Community features include community sprinkler, greenbelt, jogging/bike path, park, playground, and sidewalksDirections: West on Collin County Out Loop; left onto Chapparel Road; left on Wyler Street. Model will be on your left.
Financial info
Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage indicated
HOA & community
Mandatory associationMonthly HOA fee of $275HOA covers maintenance of grounds and structuresHOA management: TBD

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
Utilities
City waterCity sewerCommunity mailboxSidewalk
Home design
Townhouse (attached)Residential propertyLocated in Ten Mile Creek communityNew construction (incomplete) — 2026
Construction
Brick and rock/stone exteriorShingle roofSlab foundationYear built 2026
Exterior features
Covered patio/porchOutdoor living centerExterior lightingWood fencingFew treesLandscaped yardSprinkler system

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveEat-in kitchen layoutKitchen islandPantry
Bedrooms
Three bedrooms (primary bedroom on second level with walk-in closet)
Flooring
CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Decorative lightingDouble vanityEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closet(s)Wired for dataOne living areaOne dining areaSix total roomsTwo levels
Laundry & utility
Individual gas meterIndividual water meter

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-16
    days on market $339,900 Active 72 DOM
  2. 2026-08-15
    days on market $339,900 Active 71 DOM
  3. 2026-08-14
    days on market $339,900 Active 70 DOM
  4. 2026-08-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 69 DOM
  5. 2026-08-12
    days on market $339,900 Active 68 DOM
  6. 2026-08-11
    days on market $339,900 Active 67 DOM
  7. 2026-08-10
    days on market $339,900 Active 66 DOM
  8. 2026-08-09
    days on market $339,900 Active 65 DOM
  9. 2026-08-08
    days on market $339,900 Active 64 DOM
  10. 2026-08-06
    days on market $339,900 Active 62 DOM
  11. 2026-08-05
    days on market $339,900 Active 61 DOM
  12. 2026-08-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 60 DOM
  13. 2026-08-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 59 DOM
  14. 2026-07-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 56 DOM
  15. 2026-07-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 55 DOM
  16. 2026-07-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 54 DOM
  17. 2026-07-28
    days on market $339,900 Active 53 DOM
  18. 2026-07-26
    days on market $339,900 Active 51 DOM
  19. 2026-07-24
    days on market $339,900 Active 49 DOM
  20. 2026-07-23
    days on market $339,900 Active 48 DOM
  21. 2026-07-22
    days on market $339,900 Active 47 DOM
  22. 2026-07-21
    days on market $339,900 Active 46 DOM
  23. 2026-07-20
    days on market $339,900 Active 45 DOM
  24. 2026-07-18
    days on market $339,900 Active 43 DOM
  25. 2026-07-18
    days on market $339,900 Active 42 DOM
  26. 2026-07-16
    days on market $339,900 Active 41 DOM
  27. 2026-07-15
    days on market $339,900 Active 40 DOM
  28. 2026-07-14
    days on market $339,900 Active 39 DOM
  29. 2026-07-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 38 DOM
  30. 2026-07-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 37 DOM
  31. 2026-07-11
    days on market $339,900 Active 36 DOM
  32. 2026-07-10
    days on market $339,900 Active 35 DOM
  33. 2026-07-09
    days on market $339,900 Active 34 DOM
  34. 2026-07-07
    days on market $339,900 Active 32 DOM
  35. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,900 Active 31 DOM
  36. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,900 Active 30 DOM
  37. 2026-07-05
    days on market $339,900 Active 29 DOM
  38. 2026-07-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 28 DOM
  39. 2026-07-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 27 DOM
  40. 2026-07-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 26 DOM
  41. 2026-06-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 25 DOM
  42. 2026-06-29
    days on market $339,900 Active 24 DOM
  43. 2026-06-28
    days on market $339,900 Active 23 DOM
  44. 2026-06-27
    days on market $339,900 Active 22 DOM
  45. 2026-06-26
    days on market $339,900 Active 21 DOM
  46. 2026-06-24
    days on market $339,900 Active 19 DOM
  47. 2026-06-22
    days on market $339,900 Active 17 DOM
  48. 2026-06-21
    days on market $339,900 Active 16 DOM
  49. 2026-06-18
    days on market $339,900 Active 13 DOM
  50. 2026-06-17
    days on market $339,900 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$33,283
− Mortgage interest
−$19,040
− Property taxes
−$5,098
− Insurance
−$1,700
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,663
− Management
−$2,663
− HOA
−$3,300
− Depreciation
−$9,888
Taxable loss
−$11,068
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,656
After-tax cash flow
$-2,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse in the desirable Ten Mile Creek community is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a contemporary design. It offers a spacious living area, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping and outdoor seating area — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space.
  • Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing to potential buyers.
  • Resale Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can enhance the home's aesthetic and appeal to buyers.
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters.
  • Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters.
D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary O'dell El B TX #368/4,322 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Celina ISD
NCES district ID
4813290
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
61% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$83,282
Composite
50.49/100
National rank
#1853
State rank
#71 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

Score
68/100
State rank
#450
US rank
#9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population
34,260
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
34,260
Household income
$168,250
Rent vs Own
8.0% rent · 92.0% own
Severe rent burden
25% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,210,074 people
By 2030
1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040
1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050
1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075
2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100
2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity
White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 9%
Common ancestry
Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin
R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-06-05 Listed $339,900 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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