1843 Tawny Ash Dr · Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$228,775

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1982 $504/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully updated townhome in the highly sought-after Westport complex offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a partially finished lower level (ideal for 3rd bedroom), and a single-car attached garage, this home is designed for modern living. Step into the inviting courtyard before entering the foyer with easy access to the garage—perfect for unloading groceries—and a convenient half bath. The main level showcases a spacious family room with a cozy wood-burning fireplace and direct access to a private deck, ideal for relaxing at the end of the day. The fully renovated gourmet kitchen (2018) is a standout, featurin

Key facts

• $504 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Brook Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 470 students, 40% FRL); Pattonville Sr. High (math 33% / reading 64%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,893 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $162k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,297 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $98,692
• Equity at exit: $206,099

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $295,847
• Equity at exit: $444,460

Cash invested: $64,057 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,170/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$504
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,506

Max offer price $173,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-249	+0% $-314	+5% $-379	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-397	+0% $-314	+5% $-231	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-256	base $-314	+0.5pp $-373	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,194
• Closing costs: $6,863
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11752 Russet Meadow Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,000	$1.27	6d	1	0.18mi
11864 Featherwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1460	$2,600	$1.78	0d	1	0.53mi
1638 Prestonpark Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,610	$1.51	45d	1	1.03mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	16d	1	1.09mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	45d	1	1.13mi
11164 De Malle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1146	$2,475	$2.16	13d	1	1.17mi
12401 Boulder Springs Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,867	$2.85	0d	10	1.19mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	0d	7	1.20mi
1895 Boulder Springs Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1083	$3,091	$2.85	0d	6	1.27mi
1432 Glenmeade Dr Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,176	$2.00	12d	1	1.41mi
1145 Mackinac Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.5	1588	$2,490	$1.57	0d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $504 · $6,048/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $228,775 Active
3. 2026-04-15
   historical $228,775
4. 2006-02-15
   soldstatus
5. 2005-09-29
   soldstatus $162,000
6. 2003-11-04
   soldstatus $149,500
7. 2002-10-09
   soldstatus $129,900
8. 1995-01-13
   soldstatus $85,960
9. 1982-03-01
   soldstatus $85,498
10. 1982-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,815
• − Property taxes: −$2,170
• − Insurance: −$1,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$6,048
• − Depreciation: −$6,655
• Taxable loss: −$7,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pattonville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,786
• Composite: 33.69/100
• National rank: #5383
• State rank: #147 of 324 in MO

Livability — Maryland Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 21,924
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+167.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $228,775 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $228,775 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records
• 2002-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 1995-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,960 Public Records
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,498 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,170 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.