2073 Foster Ln · Mobile, AL 36605

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 747 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1989 8,071 sqft lot Est $40k · 24% under ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! This home is a fixer upper and is to be sold "as is; where is". Located close to the interstate and near Downtown Mobile. All measurements are approximate and not guaranteed, buyer to verify.

Key facts

• Close to interstate
• Near downtown mobile
• 8,071 sq ft lot

Tags

• CLOSE TO INTERSTATE
• NEAR DOWNTOWN MOBILE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($928 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maryvale Elementary School (math 5% / reading 25%, grade F, #505 of 627 statewide, top 81%, 494 students, 92% FRL); Lillie B Williamson High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #273 of 305 statewide, top 89%, 956 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 67% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.23%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $39,591
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1251 Bucker Rd W	0.13mi	2/1.0	808 (+8%)	17mo	$32,000	$40	66
2105 Robinson Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0	811 (+9%)	15mo	$40,000	$49	53
2008 Gimon Cir N	0.26mi	2/1.0	853 (+14%)	16mo	$63,681	$75	50
2067 Victory Ct	0.57mi	2/1.0	846 (+13%)	5mo	$44,500	$53	47
2600 Burgess St	0.66mi	2/1.0	770 (+3%)	21mo	$53,000	$69	47
2063 Victory Dr E	0.51mi	2/1.0	849 (+14%)	9mo	$107,000	$126	46
1260 Horton Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0	855 (+14%)	22mo	$36,000	$42	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $29,311
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.23×
• Total profit: $85,674
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36605

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $348

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $467	+0% $458	+5% $450	+10% $441
Rent	-10% $385	-5% $422	+0% $458	+5% $495	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $466	base $458	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1601 Neshota Dr Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0	815	$735	$0.90	15d	7	1.01mi
1601 Neshota Dr Apt 19 Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$800	$1.07	45d	1	1.01mi
2901 Pleasant Valley Rd Mobile, AL	1.0	1.0	578	$775	$1.34	45d	1	1.27mi
1505 Orange St Unit B Mobile, AL	1.0	1.0	512	$625	$1.22	45d	1	1.42mi
400 Westwood St Mobile, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,005	$1.34	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   price $29,900
3. 2025-12-24
   listed $38,000 Active
4. 2008-06-16
   soldstatus $51,631

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 89% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$891
• − Management: −$891
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $5,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $4,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,104
• Household income: $43,538
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1521.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.46%
• Current HPI: 125.9526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.26%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-42.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $29,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-24 Listed $38,000 GCMLS AL
• 2008-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $51,631 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.