2651 Thomas Ave N · Minneapolis, MN 55411

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Other public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1928 5,227 sqft lot $148/sqft · 19% below area Est $253k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1928

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $190k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,218
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -25.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,367
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $52,116
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55411

• Home prices YoY: -8.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,722/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,648

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2356 N Thomas Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	43d	1	0.21mi
2323 26th Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	807	$1,717	$2.13	14d	3	0.22mi
2211 Queen Ave N Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	983	$1,695	$1.72	17d	1	0.41mi
2324 Logan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	44d	1	0.53mi
2947 Morgan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1106	$1,950	$1.76	14d	1	0.53mi
2000 W Broadway Ave Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	952	$1,350	$1.42	7d	4	0.56mi
2411 Golden Valley Rd Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,395	$2.00	14d	1	0.60mi
3114 Morgan Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	2.0	1362	$2,000	$1.47	14d	1	0.62mi
1816 Zephyr Pl Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,050	$1.83	43d	1	0.65mi
2600 France Ave N Unit 2600 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,599	$1.45	4d	1	0.71mi
1649 Russell Ave N Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1011	$1,700	$1.68	20d	1	0.73mi
3255 N Logan Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	17d	1	0.75mi
2703 Humboldt Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1218	$1,450	$1.19	21d	1	0.77mi
2330 N Irving Ave Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,375	$0.86	7d	1	0.77mi
1510 N 22nd Ave #1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	4d	1	0.78mi
1510 N 22nd Ave #1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.78mi
1523 22nd Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	943	$1,695	$1.80	14d	1	0.78mi
3315 James Ave N Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	4d	1	0.87mi
3105 N Girard Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	24d	1	0.91mi
1504 Queen Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1746	$2,800	$1.60	1d	1	0.91mi
1507 N Newton Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1068	$1,499	$1.40	43d	1	0.95mi
2124 Fremont Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	2d	1	1.00mi
1312 18th Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,899	$1.25	7d	1	1.02mi
2646 Dupont Ave N Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1514	$2,245	$1.48	43d	1	1.04mi
1429 Knox Ave N Unit 1429 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	1260	$1,995	$1.58	43d	1	1.06mi
3419 Grimes Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,050	$1.58	43d	1	1.07mi
2419 Plymouth Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0	836	$1,795	$2.15	4d	2	1.09mi
2900 N Colfax Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,345	$1.12	24d	1	1.12mi
1407 N Girard Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1472	$1,900	$1.29	17d	1	1.24mi
1237 Knox Ave N Unit 1237 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,900	$1.59	4d	1	1.25mi
835 W Broadway Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$2,150	$2.53	3d	7	1.28mi
1016 N Newton Ave Unit 4 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1009	$1,895	$1.88	43d	1	1.34mi
3211 N 6th St Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	1.40mi
1030 Knox Ave N Apt 2 Minneapolis, MN	4.0	1.0	900	$2,099	$2.33	43d	1	1.42mi
816 Queen Ave N Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	43d	1	1.42mi
1315 N Dowling Ave Unit 304 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	4d	1	1.44mi
3737 Hubbard Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	16d	1	1.44mi
3737 Hubbard Ave N Unit 3737-204 Robbinsdale, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	4d	1	1.44mi
4024 37th Ave N Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	4d	2	1.45mi
4024 37th Ave N Unit 4024-204 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $199,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

15. 2026-05-10
    price $209,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

16. 2026-04-23
    price $219,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

17. 2026-04-11
    price $229,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $239,900 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

19. 2026-03-27
    historical $239,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Large living room with large windows to bring in a perfect amount of light. Buyers and buyers agent to verify all property information, home, and land at their discretion. Information provided is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

20. 2022-12-13
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 2009-11-25
    soldstatus $12,000
22. 2009-11-12
    soldstatus $12,000 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    Great opportunity for cash flow, live in one unit and let the other unit make your payment! New roof!

23. 2009-11-02
    historical 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    Great opportunity for cash flow, live in one unit and let the other unit make your payment! New roof!

24. 2009-01-13
    listed $12,000 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    Great opportunity for cash flow, live in one unit and let the other unit make your payment! New roof!

25. 2002-12-13
    soldstatus $125,000
26. 2002-11-07
    soldstatus $125,000
27. 2002-08-29
    historical
28. 2002-06-01
    listed $129,900
29. 2001-06-14
    soldstatus $55,000
30. 1997-03-05
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,722
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $2,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,741
• Household income: $60,225
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1826.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.91%
• Current HPI: 356.6758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.35%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+471.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $229,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-12 Sold (MLS) $12,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-13 Listed $12,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-07 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-01 Listed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,722 · -72.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.