19331 Hilton Dr · Southfield, MI 48075

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1937 0.27 ac lot $86/sqft · 54% below area Est $221k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity—this property is ready for its next chapter. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open floor plan, the home offers generous space and strong potential. It will require renovation and updates to restore it to its full potential, making it an ideal project for investors or buyers looking to add value. Contact the listing agent for additional details.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1937

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Lower-level entry with steps; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Property in EVERSHIRE subdivision
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Paved road access; Pets allowed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedrooms included within room count)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with natural gas; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace located in the family room; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.2% in Southfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southfield Public School District (urban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #392 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $190k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,982
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -14.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25425 Catalina St	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,204 (+0%)	6mo	$300,000	$136	70
18904 Hilton Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,918 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$128	67
18172 Jeanette St	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,184 (-1%)	10mo	$235,900	$108	62
18579 Jeanette St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,264 (+3%)	10mo	$318,000	$140	60
24125 Martha Washington Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,125 (-3%)	3mo	$265,000	$125	58
18444 Addison Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,069 (-6%)	7mo	$180,000	$87	56
18971 Eldorado Pl	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,064 (-6%)	3mo	$285,000	$138	53
24139 Philip Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0	2,054 (-7%)	7mo	$215,000	$105	52
18527 George Washington Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,887 (-14%)	9mo	$215,000	$114	44
26256 Meadowbrook Way	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,449 (+11%)	2mo	$375,000	$153	43
18850 Hampshire St	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,215 (+1%)	22mo	$375,000	$169	40
18495 Adrian St	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,518 (+14%)	3mo	$299,900	$119	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,270
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $107,134
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48075

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,783/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $586	-5% $532	+0% $478	+5% $424	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $291	-5% $385	+0% $478	+5% $572	+10% $665
Rate	-1.0pp $574	-0.5pp $527	base $478	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25582 Saint James Southfield, MI	3.0	2.5	1539	$2,550	$1.66	0d	1	0.42mi
25582 Saint James Southfield, MI	3.0	2.5	1539	$2,600	$1.69	22d	1	0.42mi
25582 Saint James Southfield, MI	3.0	2.5	1539	$2,600	$1.69	25d	1	0.42mi
20300 Civic Center Dr Southfield, MI	4.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$1,986	$1.65	0d	14	0.69mi
20800 Knob Woods Dr Southfield, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1625	$2,515	$1.55	0d	9	1.14mi
27345 Harvard Rd Southfield, MI	4.0	2.5	2500	$3,495	$1.40	13d	1	1.30mi
21727 Hidden Rivers Dr N Southfield, MI	4.0	3.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	2d	1	1.38mi
21642 Hidden Rivers Dr N Southfield, MI	3.0	2.5	1754	$1,975	$1.13	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $189,900 Active 380-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $189,900 Active 376-char remark
3. 2006-11-08
   historical
4. 2006-05-08
   listed $169,900
5. 1999-06-02
   soldstatus $82,500
6. 1999-04-19
   soldstatus $82,500
7. 1999-02-18
   listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,783
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $2,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $5,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southfield Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2632310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,400
• Composite: 23.77/100
• National rank: #7814
• State rank: #392 of 540 in MI

Livability — Southfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #6175

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southfield, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 54,914
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,841
• Household income: $65,384
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 26% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.20%
• Current HPI: 190.3275
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+123.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Listed $189,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $189,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-11-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-05-08 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 1999-04-19 Sold (MLS) $82,500 REALCOMP
• 1999-02-18 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,783 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.