2291 Hill House Rd · Chesterfield, MO 63017

$440,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1975 8,163 sqft lot $253/sqft · 43% above area Est $614k · 28% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large rec area
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• KEHRS MILL FARM SUBDIVISION
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NEWER WINDOWS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FINISHED WALKOUT LOWER LEVEL
• LARGE REC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Kehrs Mill Farm HOA with common ground access; Annual HOA fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric service; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Adjoins common ground; Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on main level, 1 in the lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with walk-out access and a sleeping area; Partially finished areas in the basement; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-810 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Chesterfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#110 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kehrs Mill Elem. (math 71% / reading 75%, grade A, #16 of 1,115 statewide, top 2%, 593 students, 5% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Rockwood R-VI average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,846 (40.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,107
• List price: $440,000
• Delta: -28.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15740 Tambour Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,741 (0%)	2mo	$405,000	$233	88
15734 Plymton Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (+1%)	6mo	$425,000	$241	81
2283 Sunley Ln	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,660 (-5%)	13mo	$445,000	$268	69
2267 Sunley Ct	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,944 (+12%)	14mo	$475,000	$244	59
1010 Bedford Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,843 (+6%)	14mo	$490,000	$266	40
16083 Meadow Oak Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (+12%)	1mo	$375,000	$193	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-116,162
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-138,534
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63017

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,353/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,634

Max offer price $296,941

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-561	-5% $-685	+0% $-810	+5% $-934	+10% $-1,059
Rent	-10% $-1,016	-5% $-913	+0% $-810	+5% $-707	+10% $-604
Rate	-1.0pp $-588	-0.5pp $-698	base $-810	+0.5pp $-924	+1.0pp $-1,040

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
974 Claytonbrook Dr Unit 2D Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,125	$1.20	2d	1	0.59mi
612 Log Hill Ct Ballwin, MO	4.0	2.5	2148	$3,500	$1.63	2d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $440,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $440,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $450,000 Active 584-char remark
16. 2024-02-08
    historical $2,425
17. 2024-02-01
    price $2,425
18. 2024-01-25
    price $2,445
19. 2024-01-20
    price $2,495
20. 2023-12-22
    price $2,525
21. 2023-11-07
    price $2,545
22. 2023-10-27
    price $2,610
23. 2023-10-20
    price $2,675
24. 2023-09-22
    listed $2,745
25. 2022-02-16
    soldstatus $380,000
26. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus Closed 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

27. 2022-01-19
    status Pending 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

28. 2022-01-13
    price $389,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

29. 2022-01-04
    price $399,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

30. 2021-12-22
    price $404,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

31. 2021-12-08
    listed $409,900 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful 4 bed 3 full bath ranch located in the sought after Kehrs Mill Farm subdivision in Chesterfield. This house is minutes to Kehrs Mill Elementary, Marquette High School, the Valleys shopping area, and libraries. It is super convenient to everything. The home features new hard wood floor throughout main floor, newer Low E windows, new deck and newer roof and driveway. New storm doors in both front door and garage door to the deck area. Both Master bed room and 2nd bed room have walk in closets. Plenty of windows make the house bright with natural lights. Finished large basement walks out to a wide open level common ground that is peaceful and quiet. An office (or play room), a storage room and a full bath in basement adds lots of usability to the house. Make this your home today!

32. 2017-05-13
    price $299,900
33. 2012-07-11
    soldstatus
34. 2012-06-25
    soldstatus
35. 2012-05-01
    listed $144,900
36. 1996-04-10
    soldstatus $101,000
37. 1996-01-19
    soldstatus $93,500
38. 1996-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,353 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,353 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$4,353
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$17,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Chesterfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #7054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesterfield, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 43,243
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,243
• Household income: $127,095
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1012.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 13% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -230.79%
• Current HPI: 218.3938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+370.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $440,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $450,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-08 Rental Removed $2,425 RENTLY
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $2,425 RENTLY
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed $2,445 RENTLY
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $2,495 RENTLY
• 2023-12-22 Price Changed $2,525 RENTLY
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $2,545 RENTLY
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $2,610 RENTLY
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed $2,675 RENTLY
• 2023-09-22 Listed for Rent $2,745 RENTLY
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-13 Price Changed $389,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-04 Price Changed $399,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-22 Price Changed $404,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-08 Listed $409,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-13 Price Changed $299,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Listed $144,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 1996-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,353 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.