41 12th St #68 · Lake Lorraine, FL 32579

$280,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,990 sqft · Townhouse · 103 Days on market

Built 1975 3,484 sqft lot $141/sqft · 6% above area Est $265k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! The converted garage studio includes a private bath and kitchenette, perfect for guests, rental income, or multigenerational living. The main home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, tile backsplash, two pantries, and stainless steel appliances. Downstairs flooring is tile with vinyl flooring in the upstairs bedrooms. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath, and a Florida room off one guest bedroom adds extra living space. Beautiful landscaping surrounds a large covered patio and a brick-paver patio, ideal for outdoor entertaining. The main home offers 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, while the separate studio adds an additional bedroom and bathroom, bringing the total to 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. Roof 2020, HVAC 2016.

Key facts

• Kitchenette
• Private bath
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE STUDIO
• PRIVATE BATH
• KITCHENETTE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($429/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Lorraine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#488 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $280k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,466 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,511
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: 5.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 4th Ave	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,732 (-13%)	2mo	$289,900	$167	54
128 5Th Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,700 (-15%)	10mo	$322,450	$190	50
138 4th Ave	0.22mi	4/4.0	2,257 (+13%)	22mo	$275,000	$122	47
118 4th Ave	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,732 (-13%)	11mo	$290,000	$167	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,367
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,027
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32579

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $133	+0% $36	+5% $-61	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-63	+0% $36	+5% $134	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $107	base $36	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 11th St #103 Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	0.11mi
133 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1248	$2,000	$1.60	15d	1	0.22mi
116 4th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	0.32mi
6 Pinehurst Dr Shalimar, FL	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,795	$1.32	45d	1	0.45mi
68 7th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	46d	1	0.47mi
64 7th Ave Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,995	$1.37	45d	1	0.48mi
234 Country Club Rd Shalimar, FL	4.0	2.5	2460	$4,200	$1.71	15d	1	0.49mi
89 Spinnaker Ln Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,395	$1.74	15d	1	0.57mi
10 2nd St Shalimar, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,350	$1.43	15d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $280,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $295,000 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! The converted garage studio includes a private bath and kitchenette, perfect for guests, rental income, or multigenerational living. The main home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, tile backsplash, two pantries, and stainless steel appliances. Downstairs flooring is tile with vinyl flooring in the upstairs bedrooms. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath, and a Florida room off one guest bedroom adds extra living space. Beautiful landscaping surrounds a large covered patio and a brick-paver patio, ideal for outdoor entertaining. The main home offers 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, while the separate studio adds an additional bedroom and bathroom, bringing the total to 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. Roof 2020, HVAC 2016.

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $299,000 Active 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! The converted garage studio includes a private bath and kitchenette, perfect for guests, rental income, or multigenerational living. The main home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, tile backsplash, two pantries, and stainless steel appliances. Downstairs flooring is tile with vinyl flooring in the upstairs bedrooms. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath, and a Florida room off one guest bedroom adds extra living space. Beautiful landscaping surrounds a large covered patio and a brick-paver patio, ideal for outdoor entertaining. The main home offers 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, while the separate studio adds an additional bedroom and bathroom, bringing the total to 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. Roof 2020, HVAC 2016.

20. 2016-07-20
    soldstatus $70,000 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    REO nice unit - lots of possibilities. Converted garage is suite with A/C, heat, full bath, water heater - perfect for guests, teen, mother-in-law. Common area has pool, tennis courts, gazebo. Inside storage & laundry. Close to Eglin AFB,Hurlburt AFB,shopping,beaches.Great for first time home buyer or investor. Call to take a look today.

21. 2016-07-20
    soldstatus $70,000 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    REO nice unit - lots of possibilities. Converted garage is suite with A/C, heat, full bath, water heater - perfect for guests, teen, mother-in-law. Common area has pool, tennis courts, gazebo. Inside storage & laundry. Close to Eglin AFB,Hurlburt AFB,shopping,beaches.Great for first time home buyer or investor. Call to take a look today.

22. 2016-06-05
    listed $65,600 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    REO nice unit - lots of possibilities. Converted garage is suite with A/C, heat, full bath, water heater - perfect for guests, teen, mother-in-law. Common area has pool, tennis courts, gazebo. Inside storage & laundry. Close to Eglin AFB,Hurlburt AFB,shopping,beaches.Great for first time home buyer or investor. Call to take a look today.

23. 2005-04-18
    soldstatus $147,000
24. 2005-04-18
    soldstatus $147,000
25. 2005-01-31
    listed $160,000
26. 2005-01-31
    listed $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $1,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Lorraine

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #8959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Lorraine, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 10,775
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,506
• Household income: $104,510
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 271.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.93%
• Current HPI: 281.2637
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+84.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $295,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $299,000 ECAR
• 2016-07-20 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NAMLS
• 2016-07-20 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ECAR
• 2016-06-05 Listed $65,600 NAMLS
• 2005-04-18 Sold (MLS) $147,000 NAMLS
• 2005-04-18 Sold (MLS) $147,000 ECAR
• 2005-01-31 Listed $160,000 NAMLS
• 2005-01-31 Listed $160,000 ECAR