4200 Memphis Church Rd · Dothan, AL 36301

$119,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1962 0.70 ac lot $87/sqft · 22% below area Est $152k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owner is agent - property is gutted down to stud walls - needs complete remodel - AS IS - Storage Building to be moved - can be negotiated if needed

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Houston County (rural): math 25% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #38 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,330 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.84%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,862
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -21.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,155
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $35,912
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $119,500 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Owner is agent - property is gutted down to stud walls - needs complete remodel - AS IS - Storage Building to be moved - can be negotiated if needed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$153/yr (+$13/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $2,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$674
• After-tax cash flow: $3,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 0101770
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,530
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6092
• State rank: #38 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47,783
• Population (ZIP): 38,627

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $119,500 SAMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.