356 Vernal Butler Rd · Cairo, NY 12413

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1968 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and affordable two bedroom, one bath ranch home in the heart of Cairo! Ideally situated for convenience, this property features hardwood floors throughout, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The newer metal roof and windows provide peace of mind and energy efficiency. Step down into your heated sunroom/family room that provides additional living space. The full walk-out basement, equipped with plumbing for a bathroom, offers endless possibilities for expansion or customization. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or looking to downsize, this home is perfect for you. Nestled on just under an acre of land, you'll enjoy ample outdoor space for gardening, relaxa

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Heated sunroom
• New oil tank

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• HEATED SUNROOM
• FULL WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• NEW OIL TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.9% in Cairo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cairo-Durham Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 439 students, 60% FRL); Cairo-Durham Middle School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 256 students, 62% FRL); Cairo-Durham High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 325 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 40% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $141,273 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $92,629
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $280,891
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12413

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,497/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $160,404

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-108	+0% $-162	+5% $-215	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-218	+0% $-162	+5% $-106	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-114	base $-162	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-23
   price $189,000
4. 2025-10-01
   status Active
5. 2025-09-25
   status Pending
6. 2025-09-16
   listed $190,000 Active
7. 2025-09-16
   listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,497 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,497
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$5,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #14433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cairo, NY
• City population: 3,406
• Population (ZIP): 3,406

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.58%
• Current HPI: 406.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $189,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-09-25 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $190,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $190,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,497 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.