163 Magnolia Ct · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$69,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1999 0.56 ac lot $57/sqft · 66% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your future oasis in the heart of Port Adventure subdivision on beautiful Lake Livingston! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home is nestled on a generous expanse of four lots, providing ample space for outdoor activities and relaxation. Currently undergoing a stylish remodel, this home offers a fantastic opportunity to customize your living space to fit your unique taste. With an open layout that maximizes natural light, a spacious living area, and an inviting kitchen, this home is perfect for entertaining family and friends. The master suite boasts a private bath, while the additional bedrooms are ideal for guests or a . The expansive yard is perfect for barbecues, gardening, or simply enjoying the tranquility of lakeside living. Don’t miss your chance to invest in this exceptional property and embrace a lifestyle of comfort and recreation by the lake!

Key facts

• Lake livingston
• Inviting kitchen
• Stylish remodel

Tags

• LAKE LIVINGSTON
• FOUR LOTS
• STYLISH REMODEL
• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• INVITING KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $120 of equity ($477 loan paydown + $-357 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.44%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,472
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 66.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $22,405
• Equity at exit: $18,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $60,314
• Equity at exit: $20,599

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $567

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-01-23
    listed $69,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Welcome to your future oasis in the heart of Port Adventure subdivision on beautiful Lake Livingston! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home is nestled on a generous expanse of four lots, providing ample space for outdoor activities and relaxation. Currently undergoing a stylish remodel, this home offers a fantastic opportunity to customize your living space to fit your unique taste. With an open layout that maximizes natural light, a spacious living area, and an inviting kitchen, this home is perfect for entertaining family and friends. The master suite boasts a private bath, while the additional bedrooms are ideal for guests or a . The expansive yard is perfect for barbecues, gardening, or simply enjoying the tranquility of lakeside living. Don’t miss your chance to invest in this exceptional property and embrace a lifestyle of comfort and recreation by the lake!

18. 2012-06-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $690 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$573/yr (+$48/mo · 83.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $4,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$969
• After-tax cash flow: $3,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groveton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821900
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,375
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $690 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.