227 Quail Run Rd · Tool, TX 75163

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 6,578 sqft lot $170/sqft · at area comps Est $271k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover modern lake-area living in this brand-new 2025 build located in a gated waterfront community in Trinidad. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,500 sq ft with an open floor plan that centers around a stylish kitchen island, creating the perfect space for cooking, gathering, and entertaining. Contemporary finishes, abundant natural light, and a bright, airy layout make the home feel inviting and functional. Enjoy the peace of a private, HOA-maintained neighborhood with lake access and secure entry. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property, this new construction delivers the low-maintenance lifestyle buyers want near Cedar Creek Lake.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Lake access
• 6,578 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• GATED WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.8% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.13%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,200
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -2.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 E Beachwood Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	1mo	$272,500	$182	85
127 Parkside Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+2%)	0mo	$298,900	$188	82
202 Morning Dove Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+3%)	5mo	$269,900	$168	80
207 Driftwood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+10%)	2mo	$317,000	$184	73
110 Dogwood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+3%)	7mo	$279,000	$174	73
113 Dogwood Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (+4%)	5mo	$295,000	$182	69
100 Indian Blanket Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,534 (-2%)	8mo	$345,000	$225	67
109 Dogwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+6%)	7mo	$275,000	$166	67
118 Channelview Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-6%)	4mo	$258,900	$176	66
119 Driftwood Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+5%)	8mo	$254,900	$155	66
105 Oakwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	4mo	$289,900	$193	66
102 Channelview	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-7%)	2mo	$269,000	$186	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $72,937
• Equity at exit: $90,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $201,021
• Equity at exit: $121,224

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75163

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $1,059

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Plumthicket Ln Trinidad, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	44d	1	1.06mi
100 Plumthicket Ln Trinidad, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	44d	1	1.08mi
1012 Chestnut Dr Unit 1301590P Tool, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$8,514	$4.50	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $265,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $265,000 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Discover modern lake-area living in this brand-new 2025 build located in a gated waterfront community in Trinidad. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,500 sq ft with an open floor plan that centers around a stylish kitchen island, creating the perfect space for cooking, gathering, and entertaining. Contemporary finishes, abundant natural light, and a bright, airy layout make the home feel inviting and functional. Enjoy the peace of a private, HOA-maintained neighborhood with lake access and secure entry. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property, this new construction delivers the low-maintenance lifestyle buyers want near Cedar Creek Lake.

16. 2026-01-18
    listed $305,000 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Discover modern lake-area living in this brand-new 2025 build located in a gated waterfront community in Trinidad. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,500 sq ft with an open floor plan that centers around a stylish kitchen island, creating the perfect space for cooking, gathering, and entertaining. Contemporary finishes, abundant natural light, and a bright, airy layout make the home feel inviting and functional. Enjoy the peace of a private, HOA-maintained neighborhood with lake access and secure entry. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property, this new construction delivers the low-maintenance lifestyle buyers want near Cedar Creek Lake.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,568
• − Management: −$3,568
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable income: $9,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $10,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, well-maintained home in a gated waterfront community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Add a small garden or flower bed near the front door — A small garden can improve curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add a small garden or flower bed near the front door — A small garden can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tool

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #651
• US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Arabic 10% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Current HPI: 211.6125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $305,000 NTREIS