1515 Mowrey Ave · Ottumwa, IA 52501

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1951 $77/sqft · 43% below area Est $86k · 43% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property is being sold "As-Is". and inspections are for the buyer's information only. Interior pictures are not currently available. This 2-bedroom, 1 bath home is located in a very desirable area that is only a mile from Walmart, Menards and other shopping on the South Side. The home was in the process of being renovated; but was not completed. The stove and refrigerator are in the garage, and the kitchen has lines on walls that might possibly indicate where the cabinets and counters were going to be located; but the kitchen is currently unfinished and needs to be completed to be useable. The garage, built in 2009, is in excellent condition. This home offers a great opportuni

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1951
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Lot approximately 7,350 sq ft (front/rear: 49 ft; sides: 150 ft)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 5.7% in Ottumwa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#91 in IA, #1,900 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Ottumwa Community School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #277 of 289 in IA (top 96%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Wapello County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wapello County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.04%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,965
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -43.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1409 Swanson Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	616 (-4%)	4mo	$85,500	$139	86
1903 Mowrey Ave	0.22mi	2/1.5	640 (0%)	7mo	$85,000	$133	82
1422 Swanson Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	616 (-4%)	12mo	$85,000	$138	81
1421 Swanson Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	616 (-4%)	12mo	$75,000	$122	81
1711 Mowrey Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	19mo	$100,000	$156	79
745 Pocahontas Ln	0.41mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	6mo	$90,000	$141	75
1819 Mowrey Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (+12%)	2mo	$135,000	$188	64
353 Osceola	0.59mi	2/1.0	672 (+5%)	3mo	$92,185	$137	61
1101 Albia Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0	684 (+7%)	12mo	$65,000	$95	60
423 Appanoose St	0.57mi	2/1.0	672 (+5%)	10mo	$55,000	$82	57
508 N Johnson Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	720 (+12%)	8mo	$77,000	$107	57
421 Carlisle St	0.74mi	2/1.5	724 (+13%)	12mo	$50,000	$69	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $24,909
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $64,130
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52501

• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,394/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $498

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $529	+0% $515	+5% $501	+10% $487
Rent	-10% $424	-5% $470	+0% $515	+5% $560	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $527	base $515	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Minneopa Ave Unit 203 Ottumwa, IA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	44d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $49,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $49,000 Active 981-char remark
5. 2013-12-18
   soldstatus $57,500
6. 2011-11-04
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,394
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $4,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ottumwa Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1922110
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,864
• Composite: 43.46/100
• National rank: #3004
• State rank: #277 of 289 in IA

Livability — Ottumwa

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #1900

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ottumwa, IA
• Population (ZIP): 30,341

Population outlook (Wapello County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,472 people
• By 2030: 35,563 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 36,083 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 37,287 · +5.1%
• By 2075: 43,898 · +23.8%
• By 2100: 52,973 · +49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wapello

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.0pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+20.8 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.66%
• Current HPI: 174.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — IAR
• 2026-05-30 Contingent — IAR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $49,000 IAR
• 2013-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2011-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,394 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.