802 E Olive St · Red Bud, IL 62278

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1919 6,534 sqft lot Est $140k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a corner lot features a fenced yard, detached garage, and basement, offering potential for an investment property or an affordable place to start building equity instead of paying rent. The home includes a living room, kitchen, one bedroom and full bath on the main level, with a second bedroom located upstairs. Recent updates include a new roof installed in May 2026, along with freshly painted front and back porches completed the same month. The property does need flooring and other updates - being sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS, giving the next owner an opportunity to make it their own. Affordable properties with potential like this can be hard to find!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Basement
• Corner lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• BASEMENT
• CORNER LOT
• NEW ROOF
• FRESHLY PAINTED PORCHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Private ownership; One and one-half story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: City lot; Chip-and-seal road; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 1 bedroom on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main/upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Living room; Cellar (basement feature); Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#727 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Red Bud CUSD 132 (town): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #268 of 620 in IL (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Red Bud High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 410 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.37%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,860
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Green St	0.12mi	2/1.0	979 (+4%)	21mo	$87,000	$89	71
414 Short St	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	980 (+4%)	2mo	$145,000	$148	71
511 E South 2nd St	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+11%)	2mo	$149,500	$142	70
125 Grant St	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+6%)	22mo	$135,000	$135	58
218 East South 5th St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	917 (-3%)	15mo	$199,000	$217	56
303 E South 3rd St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,010 (+7%)	8mo	$198,000	$196	56
603 Bloom St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	993 (+5%)	11mo	$199,900	$201	54
512 N Main St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+4%)	16mo	$107,000	$109	51
303 Madison St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	874 (-8%)	14mo	$40,000	$46	49
414 W South 4th St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (+12%)	5mo	$165,000	$156	40
708 Meadow Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,075 (+14%)	3mo	$180,000	$167	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,146
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $25,696
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62278

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $708

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,006
• − Management: −$1,006
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $2,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Bud CUSD 132
• NCES district ID: 1733300
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,391
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7652
• State rank: #268 of 620 in IL

Livability — Red Bud

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #14772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Bud, IL
• City population: 6,425
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,417 people
• By 2030: 30,519 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 28,841 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 27,150 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 22,569 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 16,584 · -47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.0) · D 24.1% · R 74.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.9pp · 2024: -50.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.0 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+46.8 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.77%
• Current HPI: 170.2242
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,281 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.