Ranger Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77378

$185,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 401 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You have arrived at the Ranger/1206 Plan, located in Castle's Edge! This lovely two-story house spans 1,206 square feet and holds three bedrooms along with two-and-a-half bathrooms. Let's take a closer look into the comfort this home provides. .. Upon entering the home, you arrive in the foyer, which has vinyl flooring and sits adjacent to the utility room. The utility room also has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and storage. The family room, dining room, and kitchen have an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for rejuvenating after a busy week or hosting celebrations with family and friends. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl floors, stainless-steel appliances, and extra countertop space, adding to the home's functionality and welcoming air. A powder room sits opposite the stairway, which is adjacent to the dining room. The powder room has vinyl floors and is positioned perfectly in the house to welcome any guests who want to freshen up. Journeying up the stairs, you enter into a hallway that leads to the two secondary bedrooms, the secondary bathroom, and the primary bedroom. The secondary bedrooms are positioned by the front of the house and feature soft carpet flooring, bright windows facing the front of the house, and a tall closet perfect for clothing and storage. Light streams into these rooms, adding to their inviting and welcoming appearance. The secondary bathroom is easily accessible to the two bedrooms and has

Key facts

• Listed 401 days

🏗️ New construction. The $185,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $166,908.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $163,671 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,908
• List price: $185,990
• Delta: 11.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12235 Shield Crest Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	3mo	$169,990	$141	94
13142 Turret Bend Way	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	1mo	$176,990	$147	93
13126 Mccrorey Crest Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-5%)	0mo	$184,990	$162	72
12350 Mccrorey Trails Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-4%)	2mo	$192,990	$167	72
12246 Shield Crest Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-15%)	0mo	$154,990	$150	71
12238 Shield Crest Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-15%)	1mo	$169,990	$165	70
12259 Mccrorey Castle Pass	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+6%)	2mo	$209,990	$164	69
12251 Mccrorey Castle Pass	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+6%)	2mo	$193,990	$152	68
12239 Mccrorey Castle Pass	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+6%)	3mo	$189,990	$149	66
12327 Mccrorey Trails Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+6%)	2mo	$194,990	$152	66
12227 Mccrorey Castle Pass	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+6%)	3mo	$189,990	$149	66
12315 Mccrorey Trails Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+6%)	2mo	$197,990	$155	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,399
• Equity at exit: $24,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $555
• Equity at exit: $14,431

Cash invested: $46,734 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$875
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,504/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $166,908

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $361	+0% $303	+5% $245	+10% $188
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $230	+0% $303	+5% $376	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $345	base $303	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,727
• Closing costs: $5,007
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12366 Sword Point Ct Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	46d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,990 Active 401 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,990 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,990 Active 397 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,990 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,990 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,990 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,990 Active 389 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,990 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,990 Active 387 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,990 Active 384 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,990 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,990 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,990 Active 381 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,990 Active 380 DOM
15. 2025-05-16
    listed $185,990 Active 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    You have arrived at the Ranger/1206 Plan, located in Castle's Edge! This lovely two-story house spans 1,206 square feet and holds three bedrooms along with two-and-a-half bathrooms. Let's take a closer look into the comfort this home provides. .. Upon entering the home, you arrive in the foyer, which has vinyl flooring and sits adjacent to the utility room. The utility room also has vinyl flooring and provides space for a washer, dryer, and storage. The family room, dining room, and kitchen have an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for rejuvenating after a busy week or hosting celebrations with family and friends. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl floors, stainless-steel appliances, and extra countertop space, adding to the home's functionality and welcoming air. A powder room sits opposite the stairway, which is adjacent to the dining room. The powder room has vinyl floors and is positioned perfectly in the house to welcome any guests who want to freshen up. Journeying up the stairs, you enter into a hallway that leads to the two secondary bedrooms, the secondary bathroom, and the primary bedroom. The secondary bedrooms are positioned by the front of the house and feature soft carpet flooring, bright windows facing the front of the house, and a tall closet perfect for clothing and storage. Light streams into these rooms, adding to their inviting and welcoming appearance. The secondary bathroom is easily accessible to the two bedrooms and has

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,349
• − Property taxes: −$2,504
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$4,856
• Taxable income: $1,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $3,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the fresh paint and decor, as well as the smart home features and durable flooring.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Fresh paint and decor can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting.
• Rental Adding a smart home system for energy efficiency and convenience. — Smart home features can attract renters and add value to the property.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to a more durable material. — Durable flooring can improve the home's overall condition and appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Installing a smart thermostat to improve energy efficiency. — A smart thermostat can reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Fresh paint and decor can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart home system for energy efficiency and convenience. — Smart home features can attract renters and add value to the property. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to a more durable material. — Durable flooring can improve the home's overall condition and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Installing a smart thermostat to improve energy efficiency. — A smart thermostat can reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-16 Listed $185,990 Zillow