19807 Corberry Park Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$239,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2025 $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

KB HOME NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome to 19807 Corberry Park Lane, a beautifully designed one-story home with NO BACK NEIGHBORS is located in the sought-after Bauer Meadows community—zoned to Waller ISD! This stunning home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an attached 2-car garage. Enjoy the charm of a spacious front porch and the flexibility of a versatile den—perfect for a home office, formal dining, or second living area. The kitchen shines with Silestone countertops and stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, while both the primary and secondary bathrooms feature stylish 30" vanities. Additional highlights include a ceiling fan in the Great Room, tankless water heat

Key facts

• 30 inch vanities
• Versatile den
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• BAUER MEADOWS COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• VERSATILE DEN
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• 30 INCH VANITIES
• CEILING FAN IN THE GREAT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Association: Vision Communities Management; Annual association fee of $900; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (builder: KB Home); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Living area approximately 1,377; Year built 2025
• Construction: Brick and stone construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 13.5 x 13.5; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 14; Bedroom (first floor) — 9.5 x 10; Den (first floor) — 10 x 10; Breakfast nook (first floor) — 6.5 x 3.5
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Solid surface counters; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $239,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $258,876.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $218,395 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,876
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19807 Corberry Park Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,377 (0%)	1mo	$239,995	$174	99
22846 Mahogany Hills Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-1%)	1mo	$219,995	$162	94
22855 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,377 (0%)	4mo	$244,995	$178	90
22862 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-10%)	4mo	$234,995	$189	75
22846 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-10%)	6mo	$232,995	$188	73
19727 Corberry Park Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+12%)	7mo	$249,995	$161	73
22843 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-10%)	8mo	$246,315	$198	71
19902 Thurlow Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+12%)	4mo	$245,930	$159	68
22803 Gentle Shadow Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+7%)	5mo	$280,000	$190	64
20011 Epirus Shores Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	4mo	$220,000	$163	63
23123 Glory Orchid Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+9%)	1mo	$302,900	$201	59
23031 Glory Orchid Dr	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,186 (-14%)	1mo	$249,900	$211	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-55,948
• Equity at exit: $38,599

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-83,202
• Equity at exit: $22,383

Cash invested: $72,485 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,883/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,360

Max offer price $241,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-30	+0% $-119	+5% $-209	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-207	+0% $-119	+5% $-32	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-54	base $-119	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,719
• Closing costs: $7,766
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	0d	1	0.44mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	1.17mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $239,995
3. 2026-03-18
   price $245,995
4. 2026-02-18
   price $244,993
5. 2026-02-11
   price $244,883
6. 2026-02-05
   price $249,883
7. 2026-01-23
   price $249,424
8. 2026-01-14
   price $249,995
9. 2026-01-05
   listed $254,424 Active
10. 2026-01-05
    historical
11. 2025-12-18
    price $254,424
12. 2025-12-03
    price $254,995
13. 2025-11-12
    price $255,364
14. 2025-11-06
    price $253,364
15. 2025-10-01
    price $249,995
16. 2025-09-03
    price $253,215
17. 2025-07-23
    price $260,215
18. 2025-07-18
    price $260,175
19. 2025-07-10
    listed $268,175 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,501
• − Property taxes: −$3,883
• − Insurance: −$1,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,531
• Taxable loss: −$5,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $-29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $239,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $245,995 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $244,993 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $244,883 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $249,883 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $249,424 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $249,995 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $254,424 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $254,424 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $254,995 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $255,364 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $253,364 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $249,995 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $253,215 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $260,215 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $260,175 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $268,175 HARMLS