1212 5th St · Bay City, MI 48708

$89,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot $37/sqft · 41% below area Est $150k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step back in time with this Queen Anne–style home featuring a welcoming front porch adorned with intricate fretwork. Located in Bay City’s Historic District, this home is a true piece of local history. Inside you’ll find four bedrooms, two full baths, a study, and a dressing room off the primary bedroom. With vision and restoration, this property offers the opportunity to return it to the elegance and grandeur of its original day.

Key facts

• Study
• Dressing room
• Intricate fretwork

Tags

• QUEEN ANNE STYLE
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• INTRICATE FRETWORK
• HISTORIC DISTRICT
• STUDY
• DRESSING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.82%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,139
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: -40.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1216 4th St	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,489 (+2%)	4mo	$145,000	$58	90
904 6th St	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,387 (-3%)	3mo	$248,000	$104	81
1715 5th St	0.28mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,477 (+1%)	3mo	$158,000	$64	78
605 Ames Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,416 (-1%)	10mo	$250,000	$103	69
909 6th St	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,337 (-5%)	14mo	$225,000	$96	69
1826 McKinley Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,504 (+2%)	9mo	$200,000	$80	66
321 N Birney St	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,200 (-10%)	6mo	$210,000	$95	61
605 N Van Buren St	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,700 (+10%)	1mo	$61,000	$23	60
401 N Sheridan St	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,171 (-11%)	14mo	$152,000	$70	54
620 N Johnson St	0.35mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,670 (+9%)	12mo	$299,900	$112	51
2007 10th St	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,181 (-11%)	16mo	$187,000	$86	38
2152 6th St	0.71mi	4/1.5	2,130 (-13%)	11mo	$164,000	$77	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $10,637
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $41,921
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,936/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Step back in time with this Queen Anne–style home featuring a welcoming front porch adorned with intricate fretwork. Located in Bay City’s Historic District, this home is a true piece of local history. Inside you’ll find four bedrooms, two full baths, a study, and a dressing room off the primary bedroom. With vision and restoration, this property offers the opportunity to return it to the elegance and grandeur of its original day.

2. 2026-04-15
   price $89,500 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Step back in time with this Queen Anne–style home featuring a welcoming front porch adorned with intricate fretwork. Located in Bay City’s Historic District, this home is a true piece of local history. Inside you’ll find four bedrooms, two full baths, a study, and a dressing room off the primary bedroom. With vision and restoration, this property offers the opportunity to return it to the elegance and grandeur of its original day.

3. 2026-04-15
   status Back on Market 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Step back in time with this Queen Anne–style home featuring a welcoming front porch adorned with intricate fretwork. Located in Bay City’s Historic District, this home is a true piece of local history. Inside you’ll find four bedrooms, two full baths, a study, and a dressing room off the primary bedroom. With vision and restoration, this property offers the opportunity to return it to the elegance and grandeur of its original day.

4. 2026-02-21
   status Pending 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Step back in time with this Queen Anne–style home featuring a welcoming front porch adorned with intricate fretwork. Located in Bay City’s Historic District, this home is a true piece of local history. Inside you’ll find four bedrooms, two full baths, a study, and a dressing room off the primary bedroom. With vision and restoration, this property offers the opportunity to return it to the elegance and grandeur of its original day.

5. 2026-02-05
   listed $89,900 Active 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Step back in time with this Queen Anne–style home featuring a welcoming front porch adorned with intricate fretwork. Located in Bay City’s Historic District, this home is a true piece of local history. Inside you’ll find four bedrooms, two full baths, a study, and a dressing room off the primary bedroom. With vision and restoration, this property offers the opportunity to return it to the elegance and grandeur of its original day.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,936 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,936 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$2,936
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,391
• − Management: −$1,391
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $3,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $3,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $89,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,936 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.