309 Crescent Ave · Ellwood City, PA 16117

$28,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 3,049 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fire Damaged Home. Hold Harmless required.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two stories; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Public transportation access nearby; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Cap rate 43.7% vs local median 5.3% in Ellwood City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#610 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellwood City Area SD (town): math 28% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.62%
• DSCR: 6.95
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,208
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Crescent Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (+2%)	0mo	$25,000	$22	88
417 Division Ave	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+4%)	2mo	$180,000	$157	79
44 Franklin Ave	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,081 (-2%)	4mo	$161,000	$149	74
183 Pittsburgh Cir	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-5%)	7mo	$142,500	$136	64
719 Crescent Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-7%)	2mo	$61,890	$60	62
635 Todd Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,106 (+0%)	6mo	$141,000	$127	59
832 Western St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-6%)	6mo	$79,500	$77	58
222 Keystone Way	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (-15%)	6mo	$30,125	$32	54
209 Line Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,206 (+9%)	3mo	$180,000	$149	50
76 Summit Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	3mo	$45,000	$47	49
418 1st Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+9%)	6mo	$141,000	$118	46
328 Line Ave	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,203 (+9%)	2mo	$205,000	$170	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $51,085
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.82×
• Total profit: $116,163
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16117

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 Hazel Ave Ellwood City, PA	3.0	1.5	1037	$1,350	$1.30	3d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-05-07
   listed $28,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $10,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,560
• After-tax cash flow: $7,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellwood City Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209240
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 35.49/100
• National rank: #4921
• State rank: #334 of 539 in PA

Livability — Ellwood City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #610
• US rank: #5866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellwood City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,013

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.81%
• Current HPI: 257.3336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $28,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,857 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.