206 Penwood Ln · Lexington, SC 29072

$283,699

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,899 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2011 4,791 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in desirable Vintners Wood subdivision ~ a sidewalk community ~ perfect for walking dogs, bikes, or exercising. Zoned for Lexington 1 award winning schools. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home presents an open layout on the main floor anchored by a kitchen with granite countertops & tile backsplash. Living area features a gas fireplace for a great ambiance. This area also features ample natural light. A paved patio opens within a spacious fenced lot. This allows for a natural extension of the interior living space. Primary bedroom is positioned on the 2nd level and covers the entire width of the front of the house. It features a double vanity, garden tub, and walk-in closet. A loft

Key facts

• Sidewalk community
• Gas fireplace
• Open layout

Tags

• VINTNERS WOOD SUBDIVISION
• SIDEWALK COMMUNITY
• OPEN LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-574/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#8 in SC, #1,502 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Hill Elementary (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #93 of 597 statewide, top 16%, 898 students, 14% FRL); Pleasant Hill Middle (math 50% / reading 58%, grade B-, #27 of 229 statewide, top 12%, 748 students, 21% FRL); Lexington High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 196 statewide, top 11%, 2,410 students, 17% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,542 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,628
• Equity at exit: $42,300

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,656
• Equity at exit: $24,529

Cash invested: $79,436 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29072

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,488
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,114/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $275,253

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $32	+0% $-48	+5% $-128	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-132	+0% $-48	+5% $37	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $24	base $-48	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,925
• Closing costs: $8,511
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
219 Luna Trl Lexington, SC	3.0	3.0	2585	$2,550	$0.99	25d	1	0.84mi
409 Hosea Ct Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1861	$2,095	$1.13	25d	1	1.05mi
421 Hosea Ct Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1861	$1,950	$1.05	5d	1	1.06mi
142 Jeremiah Rd Lexington, SC	3.0	2.0	2094	$2,133	$1.02	25d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   soldstatus $284,000
2. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-15
   historical Active - Contingent
4. 2026-03-12
   listed $283,699 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,892
• − Property taxes: −$1,114
• − Insurance: −$1,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,050
• − Management: −$2,050
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,253
• Taxable loss: −$5,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #1502

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 122,563
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 69,407
• Household income: $106,382
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.53%
• Current HPI: 212.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $284,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-30 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-15 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $283,699 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,114 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.