Cibola Plan · San Antonio, TX 78223

$174,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

Key facts

• Access to dining
• Garage
• Listed 168 days

Tags

• VARIETY OF FLOORPLAN DESIGNS
• PROXIMITY TO LOOP 410
• ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO DINING
• SHORT DRIVE TO CALAVERAS LAKE
• LOCATED NEAR BROOKS CITY BASE

🏗️ New construction. The $174,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,026.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); Legacy Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,137 students, 58% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 397 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,026
• List price: $174,999
• Delta: -38.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4830 Sahara Vlys	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,585 (+3%)	2mo	$279,990	$177	70
4823 Sahara Vlys	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,585 (+3%)	1mo	$279,735	$176	68
8324 Roadrunner Psge	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+10%)	1mo	$289,990	$172	68
5038 Agave Blue Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+10%)	0mo	$289,990	$172	68
5012 Agave Blue Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+10%)	2mo	$309,990	$184	66
5007 Agave Blue Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+7%)	2mo	$289,990	$177	64
8228 Foxtail Frk	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	0mo	$289,990	$172	64
5046 Agave Blue Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	0mo	$294,990	$175	62
4958 Don Julio	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-14%)	2mo	$259,990	$196	62
8223 Foxtail Frk	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	2mo	$289,990	$172	61
8216 Foxtail Frk	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	2mo	$294,990	$175	61
5706 Screech Owl Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$193,999	$138	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-84,368
• Equity at exit: $42,349

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-136,572
• Equity at exit: $24,557

Cash invested: $79,527 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $252,499 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 290 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 397
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$355 /mo · $4,260/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,485

Max offer price $209,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-322	-5% $-420	+0% $-518	+5% $-616	+10% $-715
Rent	-10% $-663	-5% $-591	+0% $-518	+5% $-446	+10% $-374
Rate	-1.0pp $-375	-0.5pp $-446	base $-518	+0.5pp $-592	+1.0pp $-667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,007
• Closing costs: $8,521
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8563 Redhawk Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,800	$1.01	64d	1	0.41mi
8657 Merlin Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2086	$2,750	$1.32	9d	1	0.44mi
7814 Annex St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	73d	1	0.72mi
8807 Osprey Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	18d	1	0.79mi
7722 Blue Gulf Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,575	$1.08	73d	1	0.84mi
5727 Coopers Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,400	$2.13	71d	1	0.87mi
8824 Broad Wing Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,775	$1.42	28d	1	0.87mi
8824 Broad Wing Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	9d	1	0.87mi
7246 Meadow Acres San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,420	$0.98	34d	1	0.91mi
7822 Bur Oak Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$1,900	$0.99	93d	1	1.39mi
5107 Moni Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,585	$1.04	73d	1	1.41mi
10319 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,500	$0.98	53d	1	1.42mi
6818 Fort Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1866	$1,895	$1.02	73d	1	1.47mi
10348 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,425	$1.15	24d	1	1.47mi
10363 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	24d	1	1.47mi
3618 Booker Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,475	$1.21	93d	1	1.49mi
10366 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	60d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $174,999 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $174,999 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $174,999 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $174,999 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $174,999 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $174,999 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $174,999 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $174,999 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $174,999 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $175,999 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $175,999 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $175,999 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $175,999 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $175,999 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $175,999 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $175,999 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $175,999 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $175,999 Active 145 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $175,999 Active 144 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $175,999 Active 143 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $175,999 Active 142 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    price $175,999 Active 141 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $176,999 Active 141 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $176,999 Active 140 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $176,999 Active 139 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $176,999 Active 137 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $176,999 Active 136 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $176,999 Active 135 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $176,999 Active 133 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $176,999 Active 132 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $176,999 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $176,999 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $176,999 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $176,999 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $176,999 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $176,999 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $176,999 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $176,999 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $176,999 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $176,999 Active 118 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $176,999 Active 117 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $176,999 Active 116 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $176,999 Active 115 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $176,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $176,999 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $176,999 Active 108 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,999 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $176,999 Active 104 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $176,999 Active 103 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $176,999 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,910
• − Property taxes: −$4,260
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$8,263
• Taxable loss: −$11,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,741
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in San Antonio, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harmony El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $177,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $178,999 Zillow