Cibola Plan · San Antonio, TX 78223

$176,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

Key facts

• Access to dining
• Garage
• Listed 121 days

Tags

• VARIETY OF FLOORPLAN DESIGNS
• PROXIMITY TO LOOP 410
• ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO DINING
• SHORT DRIVE TO CALAVERAS LAKE
• LOCATED NEAR BROOKS CITY BASE

🏗️ New construction. The $176,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,732.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $177k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); Legacy Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,137 students, 58% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.37%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,732
• List price: $176,999
• Delta: -37.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8404 Aloe Vera Trce	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (-3%)	1mo	$279,990	$189	76
8507 Aloe Vera Trce	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+7%)	3mo	$273,990	$167	72
8441 Roadrunner Psge	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+10%)	1mo	$304,990	$181	72
8420 Roadrunner Psge	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,687 (+10%)	2mo	$288,990	$171	70
8224 Foxtail Frk	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+7%)	1mo	$274,990	$167	68
5007 Agave Blue Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+7%)	1mo	$289,990	$177	65
5035 Cacti Orch	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	1mo	$287,990	$171	63
8216 Foxtail Frk	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	1mo	$294,990	$175	63
5051 Agave Blue Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (+10%)	2mo	$299,990	$178	59
8867 Osprey Trl	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	2mo	$213,999	$134	55
4834 Sahara Vlys	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-10%)	1mo	$262,385	$189	55
8875 Osprey Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	3mo	$191,999	$137	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-90,763
• Equity at exit: $42,454

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-149,281
• Equity at exit: $24,618

Cash invested: $79,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,703 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,493
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,271/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,491

Max offer price $194,627

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-426	-5% $-524	+0% $-623	+5% $-721	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-757	-5% $-690	+0% $-623	+5% $-555	+10% $-488
Rate	-1.0pp $-479	-0.5pp $-550	base $-623	+0.5pp $-696	+1.0pp $-772

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,183
• Closing costs: $8,542
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8563 Redhawk Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,800	$1.01	16d	1	0.41mi
7814 Annex St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	25d	1	0.72mi
7722 Blue Gulf Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,575	$1.08	25d	1	0.84mi
5727 Coopers Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,400	$2.13	23d	1	0.87mi
7246 Meadow Acres San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,470	$1.01	25d	1	0.91mi
7822 Bur Oak Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$1,900	$0.99	45d	1	1.39mi
5107 Moni Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,585	$1.04	25d	1	1.41mi
10319 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,500	$0.98	6d	1	1.42mi
6818 Fort Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1866	$1,895	$1.02	25d	1	1.47mi
3618 Booker Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,475	$1.21	45d	1	1.49mi
10366 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $176,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $176,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $176,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,999 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $176,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $176,999 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $176,999 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $176,999 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $176,999 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $176,999 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $176,999 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,999 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,999 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $177,999 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

16. 2026-02-20
    listed $178,999 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,949
• − Property taxes: −$4,271
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$8,283
• Taxable loss: −$12,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,064
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in San Antonio, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2809.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $177,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $178,999 Zillow