2107 52nd St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,466 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1963 10,160 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Think Spring!! Traditional Plan. Family Room W/ Fp Overlooks Entertainers Backyard Fun! Front Formal Dining-accommodates Lg Furniture Suite. Well Planned Kitchen With B-bar, Gas Cooking And Breakfast Nook. Custom Pantry. Gameroom! Bedrooms Are Supersized. Tons Of Patio Space Plus Awesome Heated Diving Pool!! New Paint, Carpet, Pool Liner. Updated Systems. Home Warranty Includes Pool Coverage!!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bayless El (math 47% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 518 students, 94% FRL); Atkins Middle (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 542 students, 87% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 60% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.04%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,727
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,738
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,582/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	0.24mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	21d	1	0.28mi
2310 59th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2637	$1,900	$0.72	44d	1	0.49mi
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	21d	1	0.67mi
2117 65th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2285	$1,975	$0.86	21d	1	0.78mi
2115 66th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$1,795	$0.83	21d	1	0.90mi
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	44d	1	0.91mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.92mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.99mi
2725 63rd St Unit FS Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,599	$0.98	44d	1	1.04mi
2730 68th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$1,999	$0.98	21d	1	1.13mi
1927 71st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,600	$0.89	21d	1	1.21mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	1.30mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	1.41mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	44d	1	1.43mi
7406 Waco Ave Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1831	$750	$0.41	44d	1	1.44mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	1.45mi
2220 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$1,300	$0.64	44d	1	1.48mi
3236 63rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,524	$0.84	14d	1	1.48mi
1923 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,699	$1.05	44d	1	1.48mi
1915 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1911	$1,550	$0.81	14d	1	1.49mi
1940 77th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,500	$0.88	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2014-05-23
   soldstatus 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Think Spring!! Traditional Plan. Family Room W/ Fp Overlooks Entertainers Backyard Fun! Front Formal Dining-accommodates Lg Furniture Suite. Well Planned Kitchen With B-bar, Gas Cooking And Breakfast Nook. Custom Pantry. Gameroom! Bedrooms Are Supersized. Tons Of Patio Space Plus Awesome Heated Diving Pool!! New Paint, Carpet, Pool Liner. Updated Systems. Home Warranty Includes Pool Coverage!!

4. 2014-05-23
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Think Spring!! Traditional Plan. Family Room W/ Fp Overlooks Entertainers Backyard Fun! Front Formal Dining-accommodates Lg Furniture Suite. Well Planned Kitchen With B-bar, Gas Cooking And Breakfast Nook. Custom Pantry. Gameroom! Bedrooms Are Supersized. Tons Of Patio Space Plus Awesome Heated Diving Pool!! New Paint, Carpet, Pool Liner. Updated Systems. Home Warranty Includes Pool Coverage!!

5. 2013-11-12
   listed $124,950 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (396 chars)

   Think Spring!! Traditional Plan. Family Room W/ Fp Overlooks Entertainers Backyard Fun! Front Formal Dining-accommodates Lg Furniture Suite. Well Planned Kitchen With B-bar, Gas Cooking And Breakfast Nook. Custom Pantry. Gameroom! Bedrooms Are Supersized. Tons Of Patio Space Plus Awesome Heated Diving Pool!! New Paint, Carpet, Pool Liner. Updated Systems. Home Warranty Includes Pool Coverage!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,582 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,582 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$3,582
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$141
• After-tax cash flow: $1,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $139,000 LARMLS
• 2014-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2013-11-12 Listed $124,950 LARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,582 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.