2506 Orchid Bay Dr Unit Z102 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$345,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · Condo · 91 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition $721/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience refined coastal living in the heart of North Naples. This exquisitely renovated first-floor 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence in Piper’s Grove offers tranquil lake views and a sophisticated, move-in-ready design. Thoughtfully updated from top to bottom, this residence features new appliances, including A/C (4 yrs) and water heater (2 yrs), elegant waterproof vinyl flooring throughout (seamlessly extending into the lanai), plantation shutters, and a freshly painted interior. Every detail has been curated to create a bright, modern, and effortlessly stylish retreat. Piper’s Grove is a private, gated enclave of just 388 residences, known for its lush, mature landscaping and se

Key facts

• Tranquil lake views
• Gated enclave
• Scenic walking paths

Tags

• TRANQUIL LAKE VIEWS
• GATED ENCLAVE
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• SCENIC WALKING PATHS
• FISHING PIERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Gate code works at front gate off Airport Road and Emerald Lake Drive
• Financial info: Property is a single unit within a complex of 224 units and a building of 8 units (1 floor per building)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee $699 quarterly; Condo fee $1,463 quarterly; Total annual recurring fees $8,648; one-time fees $150; On-site management; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/Wi-Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, pest control (interior & exterior), recreation facilities, reserves, security, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, tennis and bocce courts, bike/jog path, fishing pier, library, community room, sidewalks and streetlights; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Paved driveway; Guest parking available; Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential end-unit in a low-rise (1–3) building; Built in 1995; Zero lot line; Rear exposure facing west; Located in the Pipers Grove development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single-hung and sliding windows
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Lake/water view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/freezer; Built-in desk and pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms — first-floor bedrooms; split-bedroom layout
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Built-in desk in kitchen area; Breakfast bar and eat-in/family dining area; Laundry in residence; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished; Split bedroom floor plan; Four ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $345k).
• Recommended offer: $314k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,207/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $488
• Equity at exit: $105,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $37,185
• Equity at exit: $130,728

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,175/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$721
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$883
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,931

Max offer price $345,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $337	+0% $218	+5% $99	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $52	+0% $218	+5% $384	+10% $550
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $306	base $218	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	25d	1	0.05mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	25d	1	0.09mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	25d	1	0.14mi
7518 Silver Trumpet Ln Unit Q102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	15d	1	0.15mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	15d	1	0.15mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	25d	1	0.16mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.17mi
2585 Old Groves Rd Unit L203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1448	$5,500	$3.80	15d	1	0.20mi
2460 Old Groves Rd Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.22mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	15d	1	0.23mi
7762 Gardner Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$6,000	$3.73	25d	1	0.25mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	25d	1	0.28mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	15d	1	0.34mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	25d	1	0.34mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	15d	1	0.34mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	15d	1	0.34mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	15d	1	0.34mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	15d	1	0.35mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	15d	1	0.35mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	15d	1	0.36mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	25d	1	0.36mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	15d	1	0.39mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	25d	1	0.40mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	15d	1	0.41mi
7822 Gardner Dr Unit 6-101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$2,500	$1.56	25d	1	0.42mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	15d	1	0.44mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	25d	1	0.45mi
2729 Branch Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	25d	1	0.46mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	25d	1	0.47mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	25d	1	0.48mi
2662 Bolero Dr Unit 10 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1768	$15,000	$8.48	25d	1	0.51mi
2654 Bolero Dr Unit 8-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$20,000	$11.31	25d	1	0.52mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.52mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	25d	1	0.54mi
2625 Estrella Dr Unit 15-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$18,000	$10.18	25d	1	0.54mi
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	15d	1	0.55mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	25d	1	0.57mi
3049 Driftwood Way #3806 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,700	$2.59	25d	1	0.58mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	25d	1	0.62mi
7791 Esmeralda Way #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,950	$1.91	15d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $721 · $8,652/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $345,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $345,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 687-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $345,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$5,175
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,038
• − Management: −$4,038
• − HOA: −$8,652
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$2,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$602
• After-tax cash flow: $3,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated condo is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with potential for value increases through exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $345,000 NAPLESMLS