3104 Cyprian Rd · Waco, TX 76655

$298,120

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $308k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see our spacious Elgin floorplan at Park Meadows in Lorena, Texas. With 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featuring approximately 1,612 square feet of living space. The floorplan has an appealing open concept designed to fit your needs. From the welcoming foyer that leads to the open concept kitchen and living room to the primary bedroom with an attractive attached bathroom that has a spacious walk-in closet. With the 2-car garage, you will find plenty of space for storage or parking. Start or end your day with the standard covered patio, where you can sit and enjoy the views of nature from the backyard. The kitchen features beautiful flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. Each of

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Smart home package
• Attached bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $312,620

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Spec inventory, Plan name: Elgin

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1612

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-796/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,394 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,892
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2404 Cambridge	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (-9%)	10mo	$280,000	$191	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,495
• Equity at exit: $44,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-50,996
• Equity at exit: $25,776

Cash invested: $83,474 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$373 /mo · $4,472/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $288,522

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $37	+0% $-66	+5% $-169	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-166	+0% $-66	+5% $33	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $9	base $-66	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,530
• Closing costs: $8,944
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	44d	1	0.10mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	0.14mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	44d	1	0.21mi
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	22d	1	0.37mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	22d	1	0.48mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	44d	1	0.54mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	44d	1	0.57mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.57mi
9720 Chapel Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	14d	93	1.24mi
1800 Woodgate Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	14d	132	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $298,120 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,620 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,620 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,620 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,620 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $312,620 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $312,620 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,620 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,620 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $312,620 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,620 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,620 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,620 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $312,620 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,699
• − Property taxes: −$4,472
• − Insurance: −$1,491
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − Depreciation: −$8,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B