51 Arthur St · New Haven, CT 06519

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1900 2,613 sqft lot Est $249k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to bring your vision to life! This single-family home offers 3 bedrooms and a private driveway, located near I-95, Union Station, Yale New Haven Hospital, and top local restaurants. While the property needs some updates, it presents a fantastic chance for investors, flippers, or owner-occupants ready to add value and build equity. Don't miss this prime location with strong upside potential!

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Prime location
• 2,613 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property offered for sale (single family)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Above-ground fuel tank
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Built with asbestos siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Asbestos exterior siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Blue exterior color

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating (oil fuel)
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Full, unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Hot water: other; Oil-fired hot air heating with above-ground fuel tank

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 46 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,344/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1321% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $230k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,631
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Hurlburt St	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,379 (-1%)	8mo	$205,000	$149	86
192 Spring St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,428 (+3%)	15mo	$215,000	$151	75
83 Kimberly Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-1%)	16mo	$295,000	$215	73
383 Greenwich Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+0%)	20mo	$230,000	$165	69
155 Cedar St	0.33mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,408 (+1%)	9mo	$345,000	$245	68
201 Portsea St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-8%)	7mo	$265,000	$207	64
20 Wilson St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,217 (-12%)	12mo	$295,000	$242	59
184 Portsea St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,270 (-9%)	18mo	$188,000	$148	51
30 Hallock Ave	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,296 (-7%)	1mo	$246,000	$190	50
83 Spring St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (-10%)	18mo	$206,000	$164	50
247 Davenport Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,516 (+9%)	3mo	$250,000	$165	40
50 Thorn St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,201 (-14%)	18mo	$215,000	$179	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.81% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $137,738
• Equity at exit: $204,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $394,832
• Equity at exit: $436,615

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06519

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,052

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Hurlburt St Unit 2ND New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	19d	1	0.11mi
48 Hurlburt St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	3d	1	0.13mi
124 1st St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,900	$2.47	3d	1	0.16mi
36 Cassius St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1872	$2,300	$1.23	44d	1	0.16mi
461 Howard Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	44d	1	0.17mi
65 1st St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	0.18mi
123 Morris St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,900	$1.65	3d	1	0.23mi
21 Edgar St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,100	$1.52	44d	1	0.27mi
163 Kimberly Ave New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$1,925	$2.14	14d	1	0.27mi
48 Truman St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,900	$1.77	14d	1	0.29mi
234 Howard Ave Apt 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1277	$1,900	$1.49	3d	1	0.35mi
216 Howard Ave New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1204	$2,600	$2.16	3d	1	0.39mi
232 Columbus Ave Unit 5 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	14d	1	0.43mi
15 Hallock St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1221	$2,650	$2.17	11d	1	0.46mi
16 Daggett St #1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1515	$1,800	$1.19	3d	1	0.47mi
29 White St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,750	$1.41	23d	1	0.51mi
467 Columbus Ave Unit 1W New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	932	$1,900	$2.04	44d	1	0.52mi
92 Arch St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1019	$2,000	$1.96	44d	1	0.60mi
546 Congress Ave Unit 2nd floor New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	11d	1	0.60mi
82 Howard Ave Unit 82 1L New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	23d	1	0.63mi
82 Howard Ave Unit 82-1R New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,450	$2.45	14d	1	0.63mi
9 Tower Ln New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$5,394	$5.12	3d	74	0.66mi
188 Lafayette St Unit 1383006P New Haven, CT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$5,539	$5.28	3d	2	0.70mi
69 Harbour Close #69 New Haven, CT	2.0	2.5	1777	$3,500	$1.97	3d	1	0.72mi
133 Harbour Close New Haven, CT	2.0	2.5	1587	$3,500	$2.21	3d	1	0.76mi
19 Howard Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	44d	1	0.76mi
46 Orchard St Unit 46A New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	44d	1	0.84mi
46 Orchard St Unit 46B New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	23d	1	0.84mi
54 Orchard St Unit 52B New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	44d	1	0.84mi
87 Orchard St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,800	$1.72	19d	1	0.90mi
87 Orchard St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,750	$1.68	19d	1	0.90mi
50 Wood St West Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1150	$2,300	$2.00	44d	1	0.91mi
33 Sylvan Ave New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1021	$2,399	$2.35	44d	1	0.92mi
100 Temple St New Haven, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,931	$2.69	21d	6	0.94mi
196 Crown St Unit 5I New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	44d	1	0.97mi
196 Crown St New Haven, CT	1.0–3.0	1.0	993	$2,500	$2.52	3d	2	0.97mi
116 Crown St Unit 3A New Haven, CT	2.0	1.5	1541	$3,450	$2.24	23d	1	0.97mi
90 Crown St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$2,435	$3.12	44d	7	0.97mi
274 Crown St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0–2.5	1155	$4,279	$3.70	3d	28	1.00mi
20 Fair St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$3,985	$4.32	3d	146	1.00mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2026-01-31
   historical
4. 2026-01-06
   status Active
5. 2025-12-30
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
6. 2025-11-28
   price $230,000
7. 2025-09-13
   status Active
8. 2025-09-13
   historical
9. 2025-06-26
   price $240,000
10. 2025-06-12
    listed $244,900 Active
11. 2025-05-31
    historical
12. 2025-03-23
    price $244,900
13. 2024-12-19
    price $249,000
14. 2024-12-01
    historical
15. 2024-11-29
    listed $255,000 Active
16. 2024-11-19
    status Active
17. 2024-09-20
    historical
18. 2024-08-26
    listed $255,000 Active
19. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus $84,000 Closed
20. 2018-09-27
    historical
21. 2018-08-08
    listed $92,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$222
• After-tax cash flow: $2,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $49,619
• Rent vs Own: 73.7% rent · 26.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1321.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 26% White 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.81%
• Current HPI: 377.4885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+147.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $230,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2025-12-30 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $230,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-09-13 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2025-09-13 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $240,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $244,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $244,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $249,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-12-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-11-29 Listed $255,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-11-19 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2024-09-20 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $255,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) $84,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-09-27 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2018-08-08 Listed $92,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,825 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.